For most of 2026, $1.00 was the floor XRP kept coming back to and holding. It was the only demand zone bulls successfully defended all year. It broke on August 11, printing a 52-week low of $
For most of 2026, $1.00 was the floor XRP kept coming back to and holding. It was the only demand zone bulls successfully defended all year.
It broke on August 11, printing a 52-week low of $0.9915. It broke again on August 14.
The rally attempt that followed stalled at $1.0005. A level that acts as a ceiling on the way up is no longer support.
XRP printed a cycle low at $0.9877 and has been trading around $0.99 to $1.00 since.
It sits below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages. That is a clean downtrend on every standard timeframe rather than a wobble.
The token is down roughly 43% from its January high of $2.41, and weekly momentum readings have fallen to levels last seen in the 2022 bear market, when XRP traded near $0.29.
That last comparison is about momentum, not price. Momentum at bear-market lows with price at $1.00 is an unusual combination and can resolve either way.
Immediate resistance is the $1.00 to $1.03 band, then $1.06 to $1.08. That upper zone is where XRP was rejected before this leg down.
Support sits at $0.95, then $0.75, then a $0.60 to $0.52 region if conditions deteriorate badly.
The gap between $0.95 and $0.75 is the part that should concern holders. There is very little structure in between, which is how fast moves happen.
LevelTypeSignificance$1.06 to $1.08Upper resistanceRejection zone before this leg down$1.00 to $1.03Immediate resistanceFormer support, now overhead$0.9877Cycle lowCurrent floor reference$0.95First real supportLoss opens a thin zone below$0.75Next structural supportLittle between here and $0.95
This is the detail that complicates the bearish read.
XRP spot ETFs recorded $2.25 million in inflows through Thursday last week, a fifth consecutive week of positive flows. Cumulative inflows since the November 2025 launch total around $1.51 billion, with net assets near $933 million.
So institutional demand has been steadily positive while price fell 43%.
The size explains it. $2.25 million in a week is a rounding error against XRP’s market capitalization, and it arrived in a week when bitcoin ETFs shed roughly $385 million.
Optimisus examined how easily flow figures get overread in the explainer on ETF creation and redemption. Direction and size are different signals, and here they point different ways.
Retail positioning has held up too, with perpetual futures open interest around 2.77 billion XRP.
Bitcoin has been range-bound through the same stretch, and Optimisus covered why the absence of a reaction was itself the signal in the piece on bitcoin and the inflation print.
Ripple the company had a strong 2026. Cross-border payment expansion, a MiCA authorization in the EU, an electronic money institution license covering 30 EEA countries.
None of it moved the token, for a structural reason worth stating plainly. Those deals run on Ripple’s payment rails and do not require anyone to buy XRP.
That is the same brand-versus-token disconnect Optimisus has documented elsewhere in the market. Company success and token demand are separate variables unless a mechanism connects them.
The CLARITY Act is the mechanism most bulls point to. If it passed, institutions would have both regulatory cover and existing infrastructure to use XRP itself.
Its odds have collapsed. Optimisus tracked that in the piece on the September 15 date and worsening odds, and forecaster estimates have since fallen toward 10%.
The support-to-resistance flip is the most important thing on this chart, and it is being underweighted in coverage that still describes $1.00 as support.
A level that has been defended repeatedly accumulates orders on the way up as much as the way down. Once lost and retested from below, the buyers who defended it become sellers trying to exit at breakeven.
That is why the stall at $1.0005 matters more than the low at $0.9877. Finding a bid below is normal. Failing at exactly the old level on the first attempt back is the tell.
We would treat reclaiming $1.03 with a daily close as the minimum evidence the flip has failed. Anything less is noise inside a downtrend on every moving average.
On the other side, we are less convinced by the $0.60 to $0.52 scenarios circulating. Those require a broader market break that is not currently in evidence, and XRP has an ETF bid that did not exist in prior cycles.
The genuinely honest position is that this is a low-conviction chart. Weak momentum, positive but negligible flows, no near-term catalyst, and a downtrend intact. That combination tends to produce continued drift more often than it produces either a capitulation or a reversal.
What would change our view is volume. A reclaim of $1.03 on participation well above the recent average would be a different signal from the same price achieved on the current thin tape.
This article is market analysis and commentary for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice, an investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any asset.
The views expressed are the author’s interpretation of publicly available data at the time of writing, and reasonable analysts disagree on all of it. Price levels described are technical reference points, not targets or predictions.
Cryptocurrency is highly volatile and you can lose your entire investment. Past performance does not indicate future results. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any investment decision.
This is not financial advice.
Optimisus covers crypto and technology news for readers who want the detail behind the headline.
