XRP October Seasonality: Outlets Differ on What Stats Mean

The Crypto Basic and CoinTurk News EN both cite analyst Egrag Crypto's XRP October seasonality study, but report the 61.5%, 38.5%, and 85.7% figures as different kinds of measurements.

The Crypto Basic and CoinTurk News EN both cite analyst Egrag Crypto's XRP October seasonality study, but report the 61.5%, 38.5%, and 85.7% figures as different kinds of measurements.

What all sources agree on

• XRP posted gains in July, August, and September 2026, marking three consecutive positive months.
• Of 13 historical Octobers reviewed, XRP closed higher in five and lower in eight.
• In 6 of 7 years where September closed green, October closed red.
• The analysis was attributed to market analyst EGRAG Crypto / Egrag Crypto.

Where the reports disagree

1What the 61.5% and 38.5% figures represent

Out of 13 Octobers, XRP recorded declines in eight, with those months posting an average decline of 61.5%. The other five Octobers ended higher, with an average increase of 38.5%.

The Crypto Basic 2026-10-03 10:26

XRP's rate of positive October closes stands at 38.5%, while negative closes account for 61.5%. The average return for the token during October was calculated at -5.5%, and the median return at -3.2%.

CoinTurk News EN 2026-10-03 11:22

What would settle it: The original dataset or published analysis by Egrag Crypto showing the raw per-year October returns for XRP from 2013 to 2025.

2What the 85.7% figure measures following a green September

In six of the seven cases when XRP posted a green September, October also ended in the red, with an average loss of 85.7%.

The Crypto Basic 2026-10-03 10:26

XRP dropped in October in six out of seven years, equating to a 85.7% probability of a decline, while only once did the token record an October gain after a green September, or 14.3%.

CoinTurk News EN 2026-10-03 11:22

What would settle it: The original dataset or published analysis by Egrag Crypto specifying whether 85.7% denotes frequency of decline or average magnitude of loss.

What to make of it

Treat the underlying count (5 up Octobers, 8 down Octobers, 6-of-7 declines after a green September) as established across both reports, but do not cite the 61.5%, 38.5%, or 85.7% figures as average price-return magnitudes until the original Egrag Crypto analysis is checked, since the two outlets describe them as different statistics (frequency versus magnitude).

Treat the underlying count (5 up Octobers, 8 down Octobers, 6-of-7 declines after a green September) as established across both reports, but do not cite the 61.5%, 38.5%, or 85.7% figures as average price-return magnitudes until the original Egrag Crypto analysis is checked, since the two outlets describe them as different statistics (frequency versus magnitude).

Originally reported by AltcoinGordon, written by Daniel Foster. Republished with permission.

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