XRP is testing the lower boundary of a falling wedge for the third time since June. Crowd sentiment has reached its most bearish reading in three months. Daily active addresses on the XRP Led
XRP changed hands at $0.9992 on Sunday, down 0.34% over 24 hours and 3.47% across the week, with a market capitalisation of $62.62 billion. The token has now spent several sessions pinned to the $1 handle, and the entire technical picture rests on a number just below it: $0.9872, the swing low that anchors the Fibonacci retracement drawn from the May peak. The lower boundary of the falling wedge that has contained price since June arrives at almost exactly the same level. Two independent supports landing within a hair of each other tend to resolve in one of two ways, and neither is gradual.
June did the damage. Price fell from the $1.40s through $1.20 in a matter of days on the heaviest volume of the entire sequence, and everything since has been a grind rather than a rout. July built a base around $1.03 to $1.05, produced one recovery attempt that stalled at $1.15, then rolled over again through August.
XRP/USD daily: price tests falling wedge support near 0.99. Chart by Alexander Stefanov on TradingView. The shape of that decline is what separates a wedge from a plain downtrend. Lower highs came in at $1.29, $1.25, $1.15 and roughly $1.12. The lows fell far more slowly over the same stretch, from $1.09 to $1.03 to the current $0.99. Sellers remain in control, but each push wins them less ground than the one before. The apex of the pattern projects into early-to-mid September, which puts the window for resolution in weeks.
XRP: levels that matter now Daily chart 0.382 Fib$1.2017 Second upside target if the wedge breaks higher 0.236 Fib$1.1197 Acted as a pivot repeatedly through June and July 50 SMA$1.0759 Sloping down, overlaps the upper wedge boundary 20 SMA$1.0405 First obstacle on any attempted recovery Spot$0.9992 Sitting directly on lower wedge support Swing low / 0 Fib$0.9872 The line that decides the patternThe 20 SMA at $1.0405 is the first obstacle. The 50 SMA at $1.0759 is the second. The upper wedge boundary now converges into that same $1.07 to $1.08 zone, which means three separate forms of resistance sit inside a few cents of each other. The 20 crossed below the 50 in early August and both are pointed lower.
That configuration is why a bounce to $1.04 would prove very little on its own. Price has to clear the whole cluster before anything structural changes. Above it, the retracement levels supply the map, with $1.1197 first and $1.2017 after. The 0.236 has earned its status through repetition rather than theory, since candles through June and July repeatedly found their highs or lows within a cent of it. A reclaim of $1.12 would be the first genuine evidence that the June to August decline has ended.
RSI reads 35.34 and sits below its signal line at 38.26. In plain terms, that means selling pressure over the past two weeks still outweighs buying, and the recent trend in that pressure is downward rather than improving. The indicator has been drifting lower in step with price instead of diverging from it, and the standard bullish case for a falling wedge depends on exactly that divergence, momentum firming while price still prints lower lows.
It also has not reached oversold territory. RSI dipped near 25 during the June flush and has not come close since, so there is no exhaustion reading to lean on here.
Volume tells a friendlier story. The August slide has come on thinning participation, well under the June averages and under the spikes that marked the July lows. Sellers are walking price lower without much force behind them, which fits a pattern coiling rather than one breaking down.
Santiment reported this week that crowd commentary on XRP across X, Reddit, Telegram and other channels has reached its most bearish extreme in three months, as prices failed to rally. The firm noted at the same time that the XRP Ledger recorded 49,929 active addresses in a single 24-hour span, the highest level in over two months, after activity earlier in July had dropped near 2026 lows.
XRP sentiment and XRP Ledger active addresses. Source: Santiment. Those two readings measure different things and they are moving in opposite directions. Social sentiment tracks what people say, and it is a contrarian input by construction, since crowd pessimism concentrates near local lows more often than near highs. Address activity tracks what wallets actually do. A jump of that size after a multi-week trough usually reflects accumulation, redistribution between wallets, or exchange flows, and the raw count does not distinguish between them. What it does establish is that the ledger did not go quiet while price ground toward $1.
The broader market is not nearly as gloomy. The crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 37, in fear territory but well short of the extreme readings that accompany capitulation, which puts XRP’s three-month sentiment low ahead of anything happening across the rest of the market.
Crypto Fear and Greed Index at 37. Source: CoinMarketCap. A daily close below $0.9872 would break wedge support and take out the swing low in the same move. Below that price there is no visible structure on the daily timeframe within this range, which means a break would probably travel quickly and would have to build fresh support wherever it stops.
The alternative: the third test of the lower boundary holds, price works back into the $1.04 to $1.08 band, and a daily close above that cluster confirms an upward resolution. The first target would be $1.1197, with $1.2017 behind it.
Given RSI’s current posture, the downside test carries the higher probability of coming first. That is a read on sequence, not on outcome. The wedge remains unresolved, and the candles have compressed to the point where a single daily session can settle it.
One factor sits outside the chart entirely. The wedge apex lands in early-to-mid September, the same stretch that carries the next Federal Reserve policy meeting, and altcoins with XRP’s liquidity profile have taken direction from rate expectations repeatedly this year. A pattern that resolves on its own schedule is one thing. A pattern that resolves the week a macro catalyst arrives is a different trade, and traders positioning around $0.9872 should know which calendar they are actually watching.
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