A record 45% of central banks plan to expand their gold reserves over the next 12 months, the highest share since the annual survey began nine years ago. Key Points A record 45% of central ba
A record 45% of central banks plan to expand their gold reserves over the next 12 months, the highest share since the annual survey began nine years ago.
- A record 45% of central banks expect to grow their own gold holdings within a year
- 89% see global central bank reserves rising, while only 1% predict a decline
- About 74% expect the dollar's share of reserves to shrink over the next five years
The figures come from the World Gold Council, which polled reserve managers between Feb. 5 and May 19 and published them Tuesday. The survey drew its largest turnout in nine years, with 89% of respondents expecting global official holdings to keep rising and 84% predicting gold's share of reserves will grow. Bullion has also overtaken U.S. Treasuries as the world's largest reserve asset, a milestone the council flagged in the report.
Most banks without firm buying plans expect no change to their holdings, and only 1% anticipate trimming their reserves at any point over the coming year, leaving the broad direction firmly tilted toward accumulation.
The appetite has run hot since the pandemic era. Central banks have added an average of 1,000 metric tons a year since 2022, double the 500-ton pace of the previous decade. Buyers returned to net purchases in April after a brief pause, with Poland leading at 14 tons and China stretching its run to 18 straight months, even as Russia kept up a selling streak of its own.
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Faith in the dollar keeps eroding as governments spread their holdings beyond a single anchor currency. About 74% of respondents expect its reserve share to slip over the next five years, a shift the report ties to frayed relations between some nations and Washington.
Shaokai Fan, who leads central bank work at the council, said official confidence in the metal stays strong. Reserve managers ranked gold's performance during a crisis as their main reason to hold it, with a record 90% calling that factor relevant. Interest rates topped the agenda at 92%, while geopolitical instability has now edged ahead of inflation as a driver.
For all that conviction among reserve managers, the survey lands against a sharp and recent reversal in the gold price itself. The slide has reopened a debate over how far the rally can still stretch.
Gold has fallen more than 26% from its January record, pressured by firmer rate expectations and softer safe-haven demand.
Citigroup recently trimmed its three-month target to $4,000 an ounce from $4,300, citing limited room to run. Some options traders are now betting on a 40% slide by 2028, a wager that would test whether steady official buying can offset cooling private appetite.
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