Bernstein has raised its price target on Robinhood Markets (Nasdaq: HOOD) to $160 from $130, keeping its Outperform rating, betting the brokerage is positioned to benefit from a broader shift
Bernstein has raised its price target on Robinhood Markets (Nasdaq: HOOD) to $160 from $130, keeping its Outperform rating, betting the brokerage is positioned to benefit from a broader shift in how retail investors trade.
The new target rests on a thesis that broker-dealers, exchanges, prediction platforms, and crypto-native venues will spend the next two years competing for a fee pool worth more than $70 billion across prediction markets, perpetual futures, tokenized equities, and compute-linked contracts, Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote.
HOOD shares were trading at $101.13 at press time.
HOOD stock price at press time.Robinhood
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A prediction market lets users bet on the outcome of real-world events, with contract prices reflecting the market's estimated probability of an outcome occurring.
Bernstein expects this to become Robinhood's fastest-growing segment, forecasting revenue to reach $1.7 billion by 2028, a 64% compound annual growth rate.
Much of that growth is expected to flow through Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange Robinhood built with Susquehanna International Group. The acquisition of MIAXdx, which gave Rothera its regulatory foundation, closed in January 2026, with the platform itself going live for trading in late May.
Since launch, Rothera has processed more than 3.5 billion contracts, with FIFA World Cup markets accounting for roughly 93% of that volume. The exchange has become the fourth-largest prediction venue by volume within a month, representing about 16% of Robinhood's event-contract volume, with the rest routed through Kalshi.
Bernstein believes the second quarter of 2026 could be the first in which prediction markets overtake crypto as a Robinhood revenue line, modeling roughly $150 million in prediction market revenue for the quarter, up from $104 million in the first, as crypto volumes decline an estimated 38% quarter over quarter.
Bernstein also flagged tokenized equities as a long-term opportunity, pointing to Robinhood Chain, its Arbitrum-based network for onchain financial products.
The firm projects onchain real-world assets could grow from roughly $35 billion today to $2 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030.
Related: Goldman Sachs raises price target on Robinhood ahead of earnings
