Bitcoin (BTC) may already have established its cycle low, according to market analyst Will Clemente, who puts the probability at roughly 70% to 75%. He drew upon two historical comparisons to
Bitcoin (BTC) may already have established its cycle low, according to market analyst Will Clemente, who puts the probability at roughly 70% to 75%.
He drew upon two historical comparisons to argue his increasingly constructive outlook.
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Clemente’s latest analysis compares Bitcoin’s current rebound with previous market recoveries while also taking into account how much time has passed since the cryptocurrency’s all-time high.
Bitcoin is now 336 days removed from that peak. Historically, rallies that have survived this far into comparable market cycles have been more likely to hold rather than reverse completely.
Clemente wrote on X on Sep. 8,
"Seems like as a general rule, the more time that passes, the probability that big moves stick rises. Current move is well out of danger zone, but not yet all clear. ~70-75% odds that we have cycle bottomed based on this."
Bitcoin cycle positioning 336 days after the all-time high. Clemente also ran a stricter version of his historical study, increasing the minimum rally threshold from 35% to 40%. The result strengthened the bullish case even further.
He explained:
In this version I adjusted the threshold for rallies from 35% to 40%, 13/15 rallies of this magnitude this far into the bear did not revisit lows of the prior 4 months.
Bitcoin price behavior across past cycle lows, with the current position at day 336. That sample produces a historical success rate of roughly 87%. Clemente, however, remains more conservative in his own assessment, sticking with a 70%-75% probability that the bottom is already behind Bitcoin.
Another argument comes from the weekly chart. Bitcoin has now remained above its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) for almost a month. More importantly, BTC has reclaimed the 20-week, 50-week, and 200-week EMAs at the same time.
Bitcoin’s weekly chart highlights similarities between past cycle lows and the current market structure.https://x.com/WClemente/status/2097356566580113534
According to Clemente, that combination has historically carried significant weight,
"Almost a full month above the 50-week EMA for bitcoin. BTC has never set new cycle lows after reclaiming all of its weekly EMAs (20/50/200) for several consecutive weeks."
Bitcoin was trading at $78,830 at press time, as per Decibel.
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