Bitcoin at a Key Pivot: Fed Decision, PCE Inflation & Big Tech Earnings | Weekly Market Outlook

Key Events This Week:

1. Markets React to US/Iran Pausing Strikes - Today, 6 PM ET
2. July Consumer Confidence data - Tuesday
3. July Fed Interest Rate Decision - Wednesday 🚨
4. Microsoft, $MSFT, Meta, $META, Report Earnings - Wednesday
5. July PCE Inflation data - Thursday
6. Apple, $AAPL, Amazon, $AMZN, Report Earnings - Thursday 🚨
7. July MI Consumer Sentiment data - Friday
8. July MI Inflation Expectations data - Friday

Main news:

• Crude tumbled after the US paused strikes on Iran over the weekend and Tehran agreed to halt attacks in return, easing supply fears from the Strait of Hormuz conflict. Brent fell near $92 and WTI to about $84, though shipping through Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb remains thin as Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities keep risk elevated.

• Spot gold climbed roughly 1-1.4% to around $4,100/oz as the dollar index slipped 0.3% and Treasury yields fell 4bps to 4.63% on reduced inflation fears. Investors are also positioning ahead of this week's Fed decision, where Chair Kevin Warsh's comments on inflation and rate policy will be closely watched.

• S&P 500 futures rose 0.8% and Nasdaq futures jumped over 1% on relief from lower oil and bond yields. European and Asian markets followed with gains, while a busy week of Big Tech earnings (Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon) and the FOMC meeting keep volatility risks high.

• Bitcoin traded roughly flat around $65,359, consolidating after a pullback from its one-month high above $66,400, as traders positioned via options for a potential move toward $72,000 post-Fed. Broader crypto markets were mixed, with Ether and BNB gaining while Cardano slipped, amid a Crypto Fear and Greed Index reading signaling caution.

• The US Dollar Index slipped roughly 0.25-0.3% as markets reduced bets on a Fed rate hike following the oil price drop, with EUR/USD rising about 0.32% to near $1.14. However, technical analysts warn of fresh downside risks for the euro if it fails to clear resistance near 1.1420.

#BTC #gold #News