Bitcoin remains in bear-market territory under a three-indicator onchain model, despite BTC recovering toward $64,100 after its latest move through the low-$60,000 range. Analyst Ali Martinez
Bitcoin remains in bear-market territory under a three-indicator onchain model, despite BTC recovering toward $64,100 after its latest move through the low-$60,000 range.
Analyst Ali Martinez’s bear-market signal combines adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio, the Puell Multiple and Reserve Risk. Each metric has been rebased by subtracting one, placing its neutral threshold at zero, while the aSOPR reading is multiplied by 10 to align the three series on the same chart.
Source: @alicharts via X All three remain below zero. The configuration keeps realized holder profits, miner revenue and long-term holder conviction inside ranges associated with market stress, capitulation and accumulation rather than an established expansion phase.
Adjusted SOPR filters out Bitcoin outputs spent within one hour and measures whether coins moving onchain are being sold above or below their acquisition price. Glassnode’s latest public reading stood at 0.972, below the raw metric’s 1.0 break-even level. Values below one indicate that moved coins are realizing losses on average.
The first bullish confirmation under the model requires aSOPR to move above zero on the rebased chart, equivalent to the raw metric reclaiming 1.0. That shift would signal that Bitcoin holders are again spending coins at an aggregate profit.
Confirmation would then require the Puell Multiple and Reserve Risk Multiple to clear their own zero lines. The Puell Multiple currently sits near 0.66, placing daily miner revenue below its 365-day average and keeping the normalized reading below zero.
Reserve Risk also remains inside its accumulation range. The metric compares Bitcoin’s price with the conviction of long-term holders, with lower readings historically appearing when valuation is depressed relative to the amount of supply remaining dormant.
A break by aSOPR alone would mark the first improvement, while sequential moves from the Puell Multiple and Reserve Risk would validate a broader transition into a bull phase under Martinez’s framework.
Bitcoin traded near $64,117 on Saturday, July 11, with an intraday range between approximately $63,661 and $64,571. The price recovery has not yet been matched by a full onchain trend reversal.
A separate CryptoQuant cycle momentum signal also remains below neutral, while Bitcoin’s UTXO profit-and-loss structure has entered a range associated with previous bottoming periods without confirming that the cycle low is complete.
Bitcoin has now spent five months below several major investor cost bases, with long-term holder losses accelerating and U.S. spot ETF flows remaining negative during the developing bottoming process.
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