Wintermute said Bitcoin fell below $60,000 as AI stock weakness and higher rate expectations pressured risk assets. The firm noted extreme fear and rising unrealized losses but said full mark
Bitcoin lost key support levels during the week ending June 29 as broader market weakness hit risk assets, according to Wintermute's latest market report. The firm said Bitcoin fell 5.9%, briefly dropping below $60,000 to around $59,300, while Ethereum declined 7.9%, as fading enthusiasm for artificial intelligence stocks, a stronger U.S. dollar, and higher interest-rate expectations weighed on crypto markets.
According to Wintermute, the recent downturn began as the AI-driven equity rally weakened. The Nasdaq fell 4.5% during its fifth consecutive losing session, while semiconductor stocks faced heavy selling pressure.
Notably, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF dropped 7% in a single session. Meanwhile, South Korea's chip-heavy KOSPI briefly triggered a circuit breaker during trading. Wintermute said investors started questioning AI-related spending levels and company valuations.
At the same time, May PCE inflation reached 4.1%, its highest level since 2023. As inflation remained elevated, markets pushed expectations for policy easing further out. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar climbed near a one-year high around 101, creating additional pressure for risk assets.
Against that backdrop, crypto moved closely with technology stocks. Bitcoin touched its 200-week moving average after falling more than 50% from its $126,000 peak. Ethereum underperformed and traded near $1,580 after its weekly decline.
However, Wintermute said sentiment indicators suggest capitulation is developing across the market. The report noted that the Fear and Greed Index remained between 18 and 24, reflecting extreme fear.
In addition, the percentage of Bitcoin supply held at a loss approached 50%. Wintermute added that previous cycle lows often occurred when that figure moved closer to 60%, suggesting conditions remain incomplete.
While sentiment weakened, Wintermute said liquidity indicators have yet to improve. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded approximately $1.8 billion in outflows during the week. The firm also highlighted weaker activity from stablecoins and digital asset treasury buyers.
Furthermore, Wintermute pointed to recent changes at Strategy. The company introduced a new capital framework, increased STRC's dividend to 12%, authorized buybacks, and approved potential Bitcoin sales worth up to $1.25 billion.
According to Wintermute, the framework reduces immediate capital structure risks. However, it also shows that treasury-company Bitcoin demand is becoming conditional rather than automatic.
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