Bitcoin could one day equal the gold capitalization, estimated around 30000 billion dollars, according to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise. This scenario would imply a price c
Bitcoin could one day equal the gold capitalization, estimated around 30000 billion dollars, according to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise. This scenario would imply a price close to 1.5 million dollars per BTC, but is based on a historical comparison and not on a short-term forecast.
Matt Hougan bases his reasoning on the trajectory followed by the gold market since the appearance of its first Exchange-Traded Funds in the United States. At the launch of the SPDR Gold Shares in 2004, the capitalization of the precious metal was about 2500 billion dollars.
More than twenty years later, this value is close to 30,000 billion dollars, according to the estimate chosen by the Bitwise executive. The introduction of ETFs has facilitated access to gold, as investors could be exposed to it from a securities account without buying or directly holding bars.
Start your crypto adventure safely with OKXThis link uses an affiliate program.Hougan sees a comparable situation for bitcoin. When spot bitcoin ETFs were authorized in the United States in January 2024, the cryptocurrency already represented a market close to 1000 billion dollars. Its capitalization then temporarily exceeded 2000 billion.
Matt Hougan stated in a video shared on October 9 :
I think it could easily do what gold has done, that is to say reach 30,000 billion dollars, which gives a rather interesting price target
This comparison mainly suggests that ETFs could gradually broaden the investor base. It does not guarantee that bitcoin will reproduce gold’s past performance.
Bitcoin was trading around 83,000 dollars at the time of the statement, for a capitalization close to 1,650 billion dollars. Reaching 30,000 billion would therefore require multiplying its total value by about 18.
With nearly 20 million bitcoins already in circulation, such a capitalization would correspond to a theoretical price of about 1.5 million dollars per unit. This calculation is slightly lower if the maximum limit of 21 million BTC is used, which will not be reached until around 2140.
This amount does not constitute the official goal of a Bitwise fund. Hougan also did not announce a specific date for his 30,000 billion scenario. He rather recommends evaluating bitcoin over a long period, possibly up to ten years.
In March 2026, the executive presented another hypothesis to justify a bitcoin price of one million dollars. He then estimated that the combined gold and BTC market could reach 121,000 billion dollars in ten years if its historical growth continued. Bitcoin should capture about 17% of this to exceed one million dollars.
These projections therefore rely on two conditions: a continuous expansion of the global value reserve market and an increase in the share occupied by bitcoin.
Spot bitcoin ETFs allow institutional investors, financial advisors, and savers to be exposed to BTC without managing a digital wallet. This simplicity could support long-term demand, according to Bitwise.
The maximum number of bitcoins remains limited to 21 million, while the issuance of new units decreases with each halving. If ETF purchases sustainably exceed the amount put up for sale by holders, the scarcity of the available supply can exert upward pressure on the price.
However, this mechanism does not work in a linear way. A price increase may encourage historical investors to sell, while large ETF outflows may reinforce corrections. Institutional demand therefore neither removes cycles nor volatility.
Bitwise also defends bitcoin’s status as a digital store of value. This function remains contested due to its shorter history, its strong price fluctuations, and its sometimes risky technology asset-like behavior.
Matt Hougan does not consider technical problems as the primary threat to his scenario. He rather cites investor behavior, notably their difficulty in holding their positions during sharp declines.
Bitcoin has already undergone several corrections greater than 70% in its history. The use of leverage can further amplify losses and cause liquidations before a possible market recovery.
A capitalization of 30000 billion also assumes that authorities continue to accept the integration of bitcoin into the traditional financial system. Stricter regulations, a sustained drop in demand, or BTC’s inability to gain shares from gold could invalidate this assumption.
The Bitwise scenario thus illustrates bitcoin’s theoretical potential rather than a certain destination. Between its current capitalization and that of gold, the gap remains above 28000 billion dollars.
