Bitcoin has retraced 86% of the decline that started in May. A single daily candle broke through every Fibonacci level at once. June’s death cross remains technically intact and resolves arou
Bitcoin spent two months recovering almost nothing and then took back most of the summer in a single week. The pair trades at $79,240.65 on Binance as of Monday afternoon, up 1.94% on the day and roughly 23.8% over seven sessions, with a market capitalisation around $1.57 trillion. That completes an 86% retracement of the decline that ran from early May to late June. Only the $82,721.80 high that started the fall still stands above the current price, roughly 4.4% away.
The recovery off the June low was almost invisible for most of its life. July and August delivered a sideways band between roughly $63,000 and $66,000, with the 20-day and 50-day moving averages sitting nearly on top of each other and the 0.236 Fibonacci at $63,642.13 catching every attempt to break lower.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView, Alexander Stefanov Then one session cleared the entire structure. Price went through the 0.382, the 0.5, the 0.618 at $73,181.97 and the 200-day average in the same candle, on volume close to triple the prior daily average and the heaviest print since June. The 0.618 had capped every rally attempt since the drawdown began.
What followed matters more than the break. The next two candles held the gains rather than surrendering them, which separates a repricing from a liquidation spike. The reason was macro. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Aug 20 his team would make a market in long-dated debt, with buybacks likely topping $4 billion, and the 30-year yield had just hit its highest since 2007. Bitcoin’s best week since 2023 started there.
Overhead $82,721 May swing high. 4.4% above spot. The only drawn resistance left. Spot $79,240 Above every Fibonacci level and every moving average on the daily. Defence band $67,300 – $70,200 Four separate references stacked inside $3,000. First real test on any pullback.Moving averages have flipped halfway. The 20-day at $67,567.59 now trades above the 50-day at $65,515.50, the standard short-term confirmation after a range breaks. But the 200-day at $69,124.24 is still above the 50-day, so the death cross formed in June technically survives even with spot 14% higher than the slower line.
That gap closes as recent candles feed into the 50-day. On its current slope the two lines meet in the second week of September. Traders who treat the golden cross as a trigger have a date rather than a guess, which is unusual and worth marking down.
Support is rarely this concentrated. The 0.5 Fibonacci at $70,235.11 and the 200-day at $69,124.24 sit about $1,100 apart. Below them the 20-day at $67,567.59 and the 0.382 Fibonacci at $67,288.25 are effectively on the same line.
Clusters matter because different buyers watch different levels, and overlap means orders concentrate in a narrow zone. A daily close under $67,288 would be the first genuine damage, since it puts price back below both the trend average and the shallowest retracement in one move.
The daily RSI reads 82.42 with its signal line trailing at 61.31, and Bitcoin has now spent three straight sessions above 80. Readings over 70are conventionally overbought.
This does not forecast a reversal. Strong trends hold elevated readings for weeks, and this configuration has historically cooled through sideways drift rather than a collapse. It does mean entries here carry poor risk-reward: resistance is 4.4% up, the nearest real support more than 11% down. Volume agrees, with each candle since the breakout smaller than the last, currently 17.91K BTC.
Ray Dalio has spent recent months arguing that heavily indebted governments almost never fix things honestly. They do not cut spending enough, they do not raise taxes enough, and they do not formally default. They print, devalue and hold rates artificially low, so bondholders collect returns that trail real inflation.
He frames the American choice as binary. Rates rise high enough to attract genuine buyers, damaging markets and the economy, or the central bank creates money and buys the debt itself. Against roughly $40 trillion in federal debt, he calls the second option the standard playbook for a country that has effectively gone broke.
On timing he is specific for once: three years, give or take two, if the current course holds. He also concedes that his earlier versions of this warning looked premature, which is the honest caveat most coverage leaves out.
The deficit arithmetic behind it is simple. Revenue this year runs near $5.5 trillion against roughly $7.5 trillion in spending, a government outspending its income by about 40%.
Dalio makes the crypto connection himself. He expects the same devaluation across the UK, EU, China and Japan, and says that is why he expects non-government produced monies like gold and Bitcoin to do relatively well.
Two qualifiers belong in any honest reading. He pairs Bitcoin with gold every time, and gold carries the heavier weight in his commentary. The thesis also runs on a multi-year horizon.
The uncomfortable part for anyone treating this as a near-term catalyst: if a real debt crisis arrived, Bitcoin would likely fall first as a high-beta risk asset and recover only once the money printing started. That is what March 2020 and 2022 both looked like. Debasement argues for a rising floor over years, not for any particular candle.
A daily close above $82,721.80 converts a retracement into trend continuation and leaves the chart with no drawn resistance at all, at which point the conversation moves to prior all-time-high territory. Rejection there, the more common outcome on a first test after a 27% run, sends price back into the $67,300 to $70,200 cluster.
Funding rates, sourced from CryptoQuant, say the leverage is thinner than the move suggests. The breakout session pushed funding to roughly 0.023, the sharpest spike since the rally began, and it has already cooled to 0.0092 as of Monday.
Bitcoin funding rates and price, past 12 months. Source: CryptoQuant Longs paid up to get in and a good part of that positioning has since rolled off, which is not what a crowded book looks like before a major level. Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick already sees Bitcoin retesting its $126,000 record, tying that call to the same long-bond buybacks. The September moving average convergence is the nearer marker, and unlike an RSI reading it lands on a specific day.
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