Bitcoin reached major bear-market lows after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 U.S. midterms, although each downturn had different causes. Previous post-election declines challenge the assumption that
Bitcoin is trading near $78,000 ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections, drawing attention to a historical pattern in which the cryptocurrency established major bear-market lows shortly after previous congressional votes.
The three completed midterm cycles offer a potentially useful comparison, although their turning points occurred under substantially different financial conditions. More importantly, Bitcoin continued declining after each election before recovering.
The relationship between Bitcoin’s market cycles and U.S. elections is notable, but the historical evidence does not support a simple post-election rally narrative.
Previous U.S. midterm election cycles were followed by major Bitcoin recoveries, raising questions about whether history could repeat in 2026.
The November 2014 election occurred during a prolonged cryptocurrency downturn.
Mt. Gox had collapsed earlier that year, damaging confidence in trading infrastructure as the speculative rally of 2013 continued unwinding.
Bitcoin eventually established a cycle low near $170–$180 in January 2015.
Its subsequent recovery developed gradually, with prices consolidating throughout much of 2015 before the expansion that culminated in the 2017 bull market.
The 2018 midterms followed a year of declining cryptocurrency valuations after Bitcoin’s December 2017 peak.
Following the November 6 election, Bitcoin broke below a prolonged consolidation range around $6,000.
The Bitcoin Cash hard-fork dispute added uncertainty, while weaker market liquidity and declining speculative demand amplified the selloff.
The cryptocurrency established its cycle low near $3,200 in December before recovering during 2019.
The November 8, 2022 election coincided with one of the cryptocurrency industry’s most significant institutional failures.
FTX halted customer withdrawals on Election Day and filed for bankruptcy three days later.
The collapse triggered further liquidations and counterparty concerns across the sector.
Bitcoin subsequently traded near $15,500–$15,800 before recovering.
Unlike the earlier cycles, the immediate post-election decline was closely associated with an identifiable exchange failure rather than a prolonged deterioration in market conditions.
The following visualization compares the additional declines recorded between election day and the subsequent cycle low.
Bitcoin Historical Market Cycles Bitcoin’s Post-Midterm Drawdowns Additional price declines before the subsequent cycle bottom NOVEMBER 4, 2014 2014 Midterms −46% Low: January 2015 71 days later NOVEMBER 6, 2018 2018 Midterms −50% Low: December 2018 39 days later NOVEMBER 8, 2022 2022 Midterms −15% Low: November 2022 13 days later Historical Observation Bitcoin continued falling after each election. Three observations do not establish an election-driven market cycle. Source: TradingView and Bitstamp historical BTC data. Approximate drawdowns relative to election-day closing prices. Bars are scaled to the largest decline.The historical sequence is important because it contradicts the assumption that midterm elections immediately improve cryptocurrency market conditions.
Each recovery followed a different combination of liquidity changes, declining selling pressure and stabilization within the broader digital-asset industry.
With only three completed observations, the pattern is insufficient to establish a statistically reliable trading strategy.
The current cycle presents an important complication.
Bitcoin fell to approximately $57,850 on July 1, several months before the November election.
At its current level, the cryptocurrency remains roughly 35% above that trough despite October’s weakness.
If the July low holds, the 2026 cycle may have established its bottom before the election, breaking the timing sequence observed in the previous three cycles.
A decline beneath that level would instead strengthen comparisons with earlier post-midterm downturns.
Such a move would require Bitcoin to lose approximately 26% from its current price.
The relationship between congressional elections and Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle also deserves scrutiny.
U.S. midterms occur every four years, broadly overlapping with Bitcoin’s halving schedule and the recurring phases of speculative expansion and contraction historically associated with its supply cycle.
This overlap makes it difficult to isolate any independent election effect.
Bitcoin’s daily chart continues to reflect downward pressure following its October decline.
Bitcoin struggles to establish a sustained recovery as technical indicators remain bearish. Chart by Alexander Zdravkov, TradingView.
The Relative Strength Index stood at 38.80, below its moving average of 43.22.
Although the indicator remains above the conventional oversold threshold of 30, its position below 50 suggests bearish momentum continues to dominate.
The MACD reinforces that assessment.
Its main line was approximately −1,163, below the signal line near −767, while the histogram remained negative.
Both lines were below zero, indicating that the market had not yet established a convincing momentum reversal.
The immediate price structure shows stabilization around $77,000–$78,000, with additional support near $75,000–$76,000.
A sustained recovery above $80,000 would improve the short-term outlook, while the $82,500–$85,000 region remains an important overhead resistance area.
These levels reflect observable price action rather than confirmed liquidation concentrations.
Bitcoin futures open interest stood near $27.2 billion, according to information from Coinalyze, declining approximately 0.94% over the preceding 24 hours.
Perpetual contracts accounted for approximately $26.4 billion, making them the dominant component of outstanding positions.
The reduction in open interest alongside weaker prices is consistent with some leveraged positions being closed or reduced.
However, open interest alone cannot distinguish voluntary deleveraging from forced liquidations or establish the directional bias of remaining traders.
Positioning also remains concentrated across major exchanges.
Binance, Bybit and OKX collectively accounted for approximately 74% of reported Bitcoin open interest, meaning changes in activity across these venues can significantly influence aggregate derivatives statistics.
Without corresponding funding rates, liquidation data and directional positioning, the figures offer limited evidence of an approaching market reversal.
The next U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, according to the Federal Election Commission.
Applying the historical intervals would place comparable observation dates between November 16, 2026, and January 13, 2027.
Those dates are not price forecasts. They simply reproduce the timing of previous market bottoms relative to election day.
The more consequential question is whether Bitcoin establishes a new cycle low during that period or continues trading above its July trough.
For now, technical indicators show weak momentum, while derivatives data suggest some reduction in leveraged exposure.
The historical election pattern remains noteworthy, but Bitcoin’s previous recoveries emerged from changing market conditions rather than demonstrable effects of congressional voting.
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