Bitcoin hits $65,340 as US jobs data weakens Fed rate hike outlook

Bitcoin climbed to a new peak for August, reaching $65,340 after a weaker-than-expected US employment report shifted market expectations for Federal Reserve policy decisions.

US employment figures fall short

BTC/USD rose 1.3% during Friday’s session on the Bitstamp exchange, putting the largest cryptocurrency on track to close the week with over a 3% gain. The rise followed data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which reported that nonfarm payrolls declined by 23,000 in July. Economists had projected a gain of 85,000 jobs instead, making this the first monthly jobs decline since February.

The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, slightly below June’s 4.2%. In addition, the Labor Department revised down previous jobs numbers for May and June by a combined 103,000 positions, intensifying concerns about the pace of labor market deterioration.

The payroll numbers fell well below market forecasts, with significant downward revisions in prior months, leading to a notable shift in how investors view the health of the US labor market.

These developments drew immediate attention on social media and among market analysts. The S&P 500 index opened 0.5% higher after the jobs report, while the Nasdaq recorded gains just above 1% shortly into the session.

Fed rate hike expectations decline

Market participants quickly reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 0.25% rate hike at September’s Fed policy meeting dropped from 55% to 42% after the release of the employment data.

JPMorgan chief US economist Michael Feroli stated that the latest jobs numbers should “marginally lower the chances of a hike at the next meeting,” but added that upcoming inflation data over the next two months would likely play a key role in the Fed’s decision-making process.

Analysts noted that the employment report led markets to expect the Fed to hold current policy rates in September, while further economic data continues to guide sentiment.

Market analyst Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that Bitcoin’s Bull Market Support Band and the Weekly 200 EMA are now aligning at the $69,000 level. He suggested that a move to this area, particularly with a weekly close above it, would signal stronger market momentum. The analyst described ongoing price consolidation as setting up for a “large break from compression.”

Mini dictionary: Bull Market Support Band and Weekly 200 EMA — The Bull Market Support Band is a technical analysis indicator used to identify key support and resistance levels based on moving averages. The Weekly 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is another long-term metric that traders watch to gauge trend direction and potential reversal points.

IndicatorCurrent ValueKey LevelBull Market Support Band~$69,000ResistanceWeekly 200 EMA~$69,000ResistanceBTC Week Range$62,000 – $65,340Peak: $65,340

ETF inflows remain strong

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States recorded $98.85 million in net positive flows on August 7, according to data from SoSoValue. This marked the fifth consecutive session of net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Spot Ether ETFs also gained $49.60 million in fresh capital, extending their streak of positive inflows to four sessions.

QCP Capital, a Singapore-based digital asset trading firm, described the week’s cryptocurrency market behavior as demonstrating “resilience rather than clear directional confirmation.” The firm noted that recent security incidents and institutional Bitcoin sales generated only minimal unease in derivatives markets.

Throughout the week, Bitcoin traded within a range of $62,000 to $65,340, with limited volatility and a consistent buildup of momentum near the upper end of the channel.

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