Bitcoin is tracing a pattern that crypto analyst Ali Martinez has seen before, and the last time it played out, it preceded one of the asset's most significant rallies in recent years. In a d
Bitcoin is tracing a pattern that crypto analyst Ali Martinez has seen before, and the last time it played out, it preceded one of the asset's most significant rallies in recent years.
In a detailed thread on X, Martinez laid out a fractal comparison between Bitcoin's current price structure and the bottoming pattern that formed in 2022 and 2023, and identified the specific levels that will determine what happens next.
Martinez's core observation is structural.
"In 2023, Bitcoin broke its downtrend, tested the previous August high, then pulled back toward $20,000 before taking off," he wrote. "Now, the same structure appears to be forming."
Bitcoin has again broken above a descending resistance trendline and is approaching the May 2026 high near $83,000, the equivalent of the Aug 2022 high in the prior fractal.
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His warning is direct: "A rejection there could set up the next major BTC buying opportunity."
The $83,000 area isn’t just technically significant. According to his statement, URPD data shows a major resistance zone between $83,307 and $84,569, where nearly 975,000 BTC were previously acquired.
"This concentration of supply could make the area difficult to clear on the first attempt," Martinez noted, a wall of sellers who bought in that range and may look to exit at breakeven.
Adding to the caution, on-chain trader profit margins have reached 25%. Martinez flagged that over the past year, "similar readings have often preceded increased profit-taking and short-term price corrections."
If selling pressure rises, Martinez said to watch the $76,996 to $78,258 range, where 843,000 BTC were previously traded.
A loss of that zone brings $63,111 into focus, where roughly 925,000 BTC changed hands and where meaningful demand is expected to return.
