The crypto market returns to a key level as the bitcoin price tests a major resistance again. Jurrien Timmer, global macroeconomics director at Fidelity, believes a four-year bullish cycle co
The crypto market returns to a key level as the bitcoin price tests a major resistance again. Jurrien Timmer, global macroeconomics director at Fidelity, believes a four-year bullish cycle could be underway. Nine months earlier, he considered 2026 a year of respite after a down phase. His chart places the 80,000-dollar threshold at the center of the scenario, with a projection toward 100,000 dollars in case of a breakout.
Jurrien Timmer had approached 2026 cautiously, estimating that the market could enter a pause period. He then mentioned the possible end of a new halving phase in the four-year cycle. A few days later, he even described 2026 as a year of respite.
At that time, Timmer placed the support between $65,000 and $75,000. The decline eventually exceeded this zone, with a drop to $60,000 in early February, then to $57,800 in late June. Nine months later, his bitcoin analysis evolves after the market returns above $80,000.
In his analysis published on September 25, Timmer shows a horizontal resistance for bitcoin at $80,554. The chart displays two bottoms, at $60,033 and $57,742. It also shows peaks near the resistance, notably $82,807 in May and $82,266 at the last peak.
According to Timmer, breaking $80,000 would confirm a double bottom pattern. In his chart, this resistance is precisely around $80,554. A sustained breakout of this line would therefore be the central element of his scenario toward $100,000.
The calculation presented in the text reinforces this projection. The difference between the bottom of $57,742 and the resistance at $80,554 reaches $22,812. Adding this amplitude to the breakout level, the theoretical target approaches $103,400. A measure taking May’s peak of $82,807 as reference even pushes the projection to around $107,900.
The $100,000 target retained by Timmer remains the most cautious version of this technical reading. The bitcoin price closed the week of September 14 at $81,178 and then moved near $84,000. A weekly close at this level would be the highest since the week of January 19, which ended at $86,670.
Start your crypto adventure safely with OKXThis link uses an affiliate program.Timmer is not the only analyst to mention a return to $100,000. The scenario presented by PlanB for October also depends on the market staying above $80,500. Both approaches thus place this threshold among the levels to watch in the coming weeks.
Prediction markets, however, show a more measured reading. On Kalshi, the contract linked to crossing above $100,000 in 2026 traded at 39 cents, down from 41 cents the day before. The level remains below 46%, while the $110,000 contract traded at 20 cents.
Caution appears even more on short-term deadlines. The September contract concerning a break above $87,500 fell from 35 to 22 cents in twenty-four hours. This decline reflects a cooling of immediate bitcoin expectations on the prediction market.
Meanwhile, spot demand maintains a different dynamic. US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $134 million in inflows on September 25, according to Wu Blockchain data. It was then the seventh consecutive day of capital inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT contributed to this inflow sequence, according to the communicated data.
This movement adds another element to observe for Bitcoin, in contrast to the more cautious signals from prediction markets. On one side, short-term contracts have reduced their expectations on certain price levels. On the other, ETFs continue to record daily inflows, showing spot demand is present.
The $80,000 zone thus remains at the heart of the next sessions for Bitcoin. A breakout of the resistance could strengthen the double bottom reading and bring the technical projection of $100,000 closer. Conversely, prediction markets signal caution on short-term deadlines, while ETFs maintain their inflows. Bitcoin therefore approaches this phase with several indicators to watch, without their future development yet established.
