TLDR: An analyst says forced sellers leaving the market lets a recovery start while fear is still high. Leveraged futures positions can be closed automatically, which triggers waves of liquid
Bitcoin max pain has marked the end of selling pressure in several past crashes, according to Sarosh on X. In Part 2 of his series, he examines four episodes where forced sellers left the market before confidence returned.
Mt. Gox, the 2018 bear market, the March 2020 crash, and the FTX collapse all followed that pattern. Each time, the price stopped falling before sentiment improved. Bitcoin’s decline of about 53% from its October 2025 peak now invites comparison.
Sarosh published Part 2 of “When Max Pain Arrives, the Turn is NOT Far Off” on X. The post links old stock market crashes to crypto. It centers on sellers who lose the freedom to wait for a better price.
When Max Pain Arrives, the Turn is NOT Far Off — Part 2: Crypto Markets
After reading about Black Monday and the banking crisis of 2009, you may be wondering what those old stock market crashes have to do with Bitcoin.
Think about the person who has to sell. In 2009, that… pic.twitter.com/RU6eYSW3zZ
— Sarosh (@SaroshQ2022) November 14, 2026
According to the post, some investors sell because they have had enough. Others sell because they have no choice. Once those sales finish, less buying is needed to steady the price. Therefore, a recovery can begin while fear remains.
Bitcoin max pain arrives quickly because crypto trades around the clock. News, selling, and reaction can unfold in one weekend. Borrowed money also speeds up declines. A trader can post $1,000 to control $10,000 of Bitcoin through futures.
A small drop can erase most of that margin, and the exchange then closes the trade automatically. If thousands of traders share the position, one wave forces another. Traders call this a liquidation cascade, which fueled the March 2020 crash.
Mt. Gox collapsed in early 2014 after reporting about 850,000 bitcoin missing. Bitcoin fell from roughly $1,150 to the 150–200 range by January 2015, about 85%. It then made little progress for nine months before nearing $20,000 in December 2017.
In 2018, Bitcoin found buyers near $6,000 until that level broke in November. By December, it neared $3,200, down about 84%.
Some miners spent more on electricity than they earned and switched off machines. By late June 2019, the price approached $14,000.
On March 12 and 13, 2020, Bitcoin fell from around $8,000 to below $4,000. Automatic closures of borrowed positions pushed the price lower. By March 18, it was back above $6,000. It reached about $69,000 in November 2021.
FTX failed in November 2022 after Terra, Three Arrows Capital, and Celsius had collapsed. Bitcoin fell to roughly $15,500, about 78% below its 2021 peak. By October 2025, it traded above $126,000, a gain of more than 700%.
Sarosh noted that Bitcoin fell about 53% from its October 2025 peak to the middle of 2026. That is smaller than the 85%, 84%, and 78% drops before earlier lows. Still, he said the size of a fall does not show where selling ends.
He also pointed to spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have made Bitcoin easier to own and easier to sell. In addition, he said the Federal Reserve can ease money flows but does not guarantee coins held in exchange accounts.
He suggested watching what happens when sellers return. Does Bitcoin reach a fresh low as easily as before? Do outright buyers keep buying for several days? Does the next pullback erase the whole recovery?
He added that a turn can be recognized early even if the lowest price is missed. In his view, it stands out when inflation news is bad, war continues, yields stay high, and the Fed discusses rate hikes.
The post Bitcoin Max Pain Has Marked Past Turning Points, Analyst Says appeared first on Blockonomi.
