Bitcoin miners and whales sent unusually large amounts of BTC toward exchanges in recent days, CryptoQuant said on Thursday, November 5, and its analyst argues the spikes could be early signs
Bitcoin miners and whales sent unusually large amounts of BTC toward exchanges in recent days, CryptoQuant said on Thursday, November 5, and its analyst argues the spikes could be early signs of a new rally if three conditions are met.
That sounds backwards at first. Coins heading to exchanges usually mean someone wants to sell.
Bitcoin: Miner and Whale Indicators Surge—Early Signs of a New Rally?“Continued MPI normalization, absorption of large deposits, and a recovery above those highs supported by spot volume would strengthen the case that a new rally is beginning.” – By COINDREAM pic.twitter.com/z8D5EBBdvC
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 5, 2026
On Binance, the exchange whale ratio, the share of inflows coming from the 10 largest deposits, jumped to near 1.0, above its February–March peaks of about 0.85–0.87. The Miners’ Position Index (MPI), which compares miners’ outflows with their yearly average, spiked to about 2.9 before falling back to about 0.2.
The spikes came around the US midterms, when BTC dropped to $75,736 on election night and then bounced back above $80,000. It traded at $80,120 on Binance at 11:10 UTC on Thursday.
So were whales and miners selling into the bounce, or was the market strong enough to take their coins?
A few big wallets and Bitcoin miners moved a lot of coins at once, and the price rose anyway. That is the part CryptoQuant analyst COINDREAM finds interesting.
The whale ratio’s reading near 1.0 means almost all of the BTC arriving at Binance came in the 10 largest transfers. CryptoQuant’s chart puts it above the February and March peaks.
The miner signal has a mixed record. The MPI spiked during February’s sell-off and again during August’s rebound, so the spike alone does not say which way the price goes next. What follows it matters more.
Miners had a reason to move coins. Bitcoin’s mining difficulty rose 5.5% on October 29, the same day BTC fell on news of the Binance hack, so each unit of computing power earned less just as the price dropped. With hashrate near 1,030 EH/s, mempool.space estimates the next adjustment on November 13 will cut difficulty by about 2.8%.
One caveat: neither metric proves a sale. CryptoQuant’s own chart notes that miner outflows are not the same as confirmed selling.
The analyst set out what would turn the signal bullish: “Continued MPI normalization, absorption of large deposits, and a recovery above those highs supported by spot volume would strengthen the case that a new rally is beginning.”
One is met, one is holding for now, and one is not there yet.
Miner pressure: met. The MPI is back to about 0.2 after its spike, close to normal.
Absorbing big deposits: so far, yes. BTC rose 3.9% on Wednesday to close at $80,504, even with the whale deposits sitting on Binance. Buyers took 54% of Binance spot trading that day. Thursday looks weaker: sellers have led with 61% of trades so far, and the price has slipped back to about $80,120.
A move above the highs on spot volume: not yet. The nearest high is $81,971, where BTC traded on October 29 before the Binance hack news broke. Binance spot volume hit $1.75 billion on Wednesday, 52% above its 30-day average of $1.15 billion, but still below the $1.91 billion traded on the day of the hack.
That last condition is the one to watch. Without strong spot buying above $81,971, the whale and miner spikes could just as easily be selling that the market happened to absorb.
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BTC is sitting right on its moving averages. The 20-day EMA is at $79,965 and the 50-day EMA at $80,149, so the $80,000 area is the first support.
BTCUSDT 1D chart. Source: TradingView.
Scenario Condition Where it could lead Advance A daily close above $81,971 on above-average spot volume $84,898, the October 21 high Pause Price holds between $80,000 and $81,971 More range trading while the whale deposits clear Retreat A daily close back below $80,000 $75,736, the election-night lowThe advance case lines up with CryptoQuant’s third condition. A close above $81,971 would put Bitcoin back where it was before the hack, and strong spot volume would show real buyers are behind the move.
The post Bitcoin Miner and Whale Signals Spike on Binance: CryptoQuant Lays Out a Three-Part Test for a New Rally, and BTC Has Passed One appeared first on Tokenist.
