The Federal Reserve has held its benchmark interest rate at 3.75%–4.00% on Oct. 28, with two officials favoring another quarter-point hike as Bitcoin trades near $80,800. Summary The Fed kept
The Federal Reserve has held its benchmark interest rate at 3.75%–4.00% on Oct. 28, with two officials favoring another quarter-point hike as Bitcoin trades near $80,800.
SummaryThe Federal Open Market Committee approved the decision by a 10–2 vote, according to its October statement, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of higher rates.
In its statement released at 2 p.m. Eastern, the committee described economic growth as strong and said inflation remained elevated. Policymakers said domestic spending had remained resilient, capital investment was robust, and unemployment had changed little.
The committee said more information would help it decide the appropriate policy stance to bring inflation back to its 2% goal in a timely manner. “The Committee will deliver price stability,” it said.
The October split followed a unanimous Sep. 16 decision to raise rates by 25 basis points. All 12 voters supported that earlier increase, which brought the benchmark range to its current level, according to the September statement.
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September’s statement described economic activity as expanding at a “solid pace”; October’s wording changed that description to a “strong pace.” Both statements retained the central bank’s commitment to maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.
Before the announcement, KPMG’s Oct. 22 meeting preview forecast an unchanged rate and a December hike. The firm expected a unanimous hold, while identifying a risk of one dissent favoring higher rates. Wednesday’s decision instead drew two such objections.
KPMG’s economists said pauses between quarter-point moves would allow officials to assess inflation, employment and financial conditions. Their preview described the challenge as tightening policy without triggering trouble in markets already facing higher borrowing costs and elevated long-term yields. Its December forecast remained an expectation, not an announced Fed decision.
At the time of checking, the market panel accompanying an Oct. 28 report displayed Bitcoin at $80,771, up 0.47% over 24 hours. Its displayed daily trading range ran from $80,334 to $81,636.
Earlier in the day, crypto.news reported that Bitcoin had recovered above $80,000 while remaining below its short-term moving averages. The report’s technical assessment placed the nine-day average at $81,416 and the 21-day average at $81,905.
Citing analyst Rekt Capital, the report identified $81,400 as a three-day closing level Bitcoin needed to regain after losing it as support. Its recovery scenario placed $82,000–$82,500 above that area, followed by a possible move toward $84,202.
The same assessment listed $80,000 as immediate support, with $78,000 and $76,000 below it. Those levels came from analysis published before the Fed announcement, rather than a new assessment of trading after the decision.
HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun previously identified Treasury yields, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund flows and derivatives leverage as the main factors to follow around the Fed’s next decision.
In comments published Sep. 29, Sun said a second consecutive hike could lead investors to view September’s increase as the beginning of repeated tightening. He said higher long-term yields and tighter dollar liquidity could weigh on demand, while leveraged positions could affect the size of Bitcoin’s response.
Sun’s comments preceded Wednesday’s hold. His assessment tied sustained ETF inflows to potential support for Bitcoin and warned that excessive derivatives leverage could leave the market exposed if conditions changed.
An Oct. 17 assessment documented $614.7 million in net withdrawals from U.S. spot Bitcoin funds across October’s first 12 trading sessions, using Farside Investors’ daily totals.
The report showed how uneven individual sessions had been: $175.7 million entered on Oct. 13, followed by $261.4 million in withdrawals on Oct. 14. It noted that fund-flow totals can be revised and do not directly measure exchange spot purchases on the same date.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September report put annual consumer inflation at 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August. Consumer prices rose 0.6% during the month on a seasonally adjusted basis, following a 0.4% gain in August.
Gasoline prices climbed 9.1% in September and accounted for more than half the monthly rise in the headline index, according to the agency. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.3% during the month and 2.6% over the year.
In a separate measure, the Fed’s September economic projections put median PCE inflation at 3.7% for 2026 and 2.3% for 2027. The projections measure fourth-quarter changes from a year earlier, while the September CPI reading measures the preceding 12 months.
The September projections placed the median year-end federal funds rate at 4.1% for both 2026 and 2027, compared with June forecasts of 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively. The Fed describes those figures as participants’ individual assessments of appropriate policy.
The September projections put median real GDP growth at 2.3% in 2026, up from 2.2% in June, and unemployment at 4.1%, down from 4.3%. Participants projected core PCE inflation of 3.4%, compared with their earlier 3.3% forecast.
Under the October implementation note, interest paid on reserve balances remains 3.90%, effective October 29. Standing overnight repurchase operations retain a 4.00% rate, while overnight reverse repurchase operations carry a 3.75% offering rate and a $160 billion daily limit per counterparty.
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