Bitcoin may still be far from its ultimate market bottom, according to fresh analysis from on-chain analyst Ki Young Ju, who said traditional cycle indicators are not yet signaling a full cap
Bitcoin may still be far from its ultimate market bottom, according to fresh analysis from on-chain analyst Ki Young Ju, who said traditional cycle indicators are not yet signaling a full capitulation phase.
Using a long-term logarithmic chart, Ju said Bitcoin’s current structure does not resemble previous cycle bottoms. Historically, every major Bitcoin bear market eventually pushed prices close to the realized price, the average cost basis of all investors. While Bitcoin is moving closer to those levels, Ju says the market has not fully reached the point that historically marked major bottoms.
According to Ju, Bitcoin’s risk-to-reward profile improves as prices approach investors’ cost basis. He noted that every previous major cycle eventually touched realized price before establishing a long-term bottom.
Here’s a log-scale chart.From a traditional cycle perspective, Bitcoin does not look close to a bottom yet.Risk/reward improves sharply as price approaches investors’ cost basis.Every major cycle has touched realized price.If not, maybe “this time is different.” pic.twitter.com/4EARtkfRYQ
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) June 26, 2026
Ju warned that unless “this time is different,” Bitcoin may still need to fall further before a true cycle bottom is formed.
Alongside Ju’s caution, several market analysts comparing previous cycles have raised concerns that Bitcoin could still revisit the $30,000 region.
After the 2017 bull market peak, Bitcoin corrected by roughly 83%. Following the 2021 top, the cryptocurrency fell about 77%. If the 2025 rally marked another cycle peak, a similar correction could theoretically send Bitcoin toward or even below $30,000.
Analysts warn that the final stage of every bear market usually arrives when investors become convinced the bottom is already in. Similar patterns emerged in both 2018 and 2022, when brief recoveries created optimism before another sharp decline erased market confidence.
Bitcoin remains below its 2025 highs, momentum has weakened, and some analysts think the market could be entering another late-cycle “bleed phase.”
Market commentators also warn that if Bitcoin experiences another major leg down, altcoins could face even steeper declines.
BITCOIN UNDER $30K. 😨Yes, the pain exists right now but more of it is coming.Just when I was convinced that the "BOTTOM IS IN"This happened 👀Bitcoin has already gone through this twice before. After the 2017 bull top, BTC corrected around 83%.After the 2021 bull top,… pic.twitter.com/cogv0Hvwck
— Our Crypto Talk (@ourcryptotalk) June 26, 2026
Many smaller cryptocurrencies are already underperforming Bitcoin as liquidity continues to shrink and retail participation remains weak. Analysts believe another Bitcoin selloff could trigger forced liquidations, broken support levels, and repricing across the altcoin market.
Not every analyst expects Bitcoin to revisit $30,000.
Chinese Bitcoin mining veteran Jiang Zhuoer recently projected that Bitcoin could bottom between $42,000 and $44,000 sometime between October and December 2026.
《对本轮BTC熊市 见底时间&价格 预测》【重要长期预测贴】MSTR的mNAV已跌到0.72了【图1，图3】，（mNAV=股价/每股含BTC价值 比值，代表美股资金对MSTR的市场情绪，高于1为泡沫高估，低于1为悲观低估）接近上一轮牛市2022年5月11日的最低点0.7【图2】。根据最近STRC大幅脱锚等市场情绪事件，… https://t.co/V5s0Q2S2Wypic.twitter.com/o9fqE9U80z
— 江卓尔_莱比特矿池 (@Jiangzhuoer2) June 24, 2026
Jiang based his outlook on Strategy’s declining market net asset value (mNAV), which recently dropped to 0.72, close to levels seen during the 2022 bear market transition. However, he noted that mNAV bottoms have historically occurred around six months before Bitcoin reaches its final cycle low.
