In our last Bitcoin daily prediction, we said BTC had three key paths: a bearish break below $76,000 that could send the price toward $74,000-$75,000, a base range between $76,000 and $78,000
In our last Bitcoin daily prediction, we said BTC had three key paths: a bearish break below $76,000 that could send the price toward $74,000-$75,000, a base range between $76,000 and $78,000, or a bullish breakout above $78,000 that could open the door to $79,700-$80,000 and potentially $80,500-$81,000.
The Bitcoin price initially followed the bearish path, dropping through $76,000 and reaching the $75,000 area before recovering.
The BTC price is now back at $76,477.67, up 0.87% in 24 hours, as the broader crypto market gains 1.41%. With equities recovering and Treasury yields easing after the Fed’s rate hike, the next move depends on whether Bitcoin can reclaim $77,000 and $78,000 or loses the $76,000 support again.
The US dollar eased on Thursday after its biggest one-day rise in three months against the euro on Wednesday following the Federal Reserve’s rate hike. The euro recovered 0.3% to $1.1494, and the dollar index fell 0.2% to 100.07 as Treasury yields and oil prices moved lower. That retreat can support risk assets such as Bitcoin after the dollar’s post-Fed move.
JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou also see room for Bitcoin to gain relative ground against gold based on market positioning. Their September 16 research noted that gold ETFs have recovered all their 2026 outflows, compared with about half for Bitcoin ETFs, and short interest in BlackRock’s IBIT remains near its highest level this year. If that hedging pressure falls, JPMorgan said Bitcoin could receive additional support.
Moscow Exchange is set to launch perpetual futures linked to Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP and TRON on September 22. The contracts will be available to qualified investors, quoted in dollars and settled in rubles, with more than 72,000 qualified investors already trading MOEX crypto futures and cumulative turnover above RUB 600 billion.
US lawmakers also advanced the American Reserve Modernization Act, H.R. 8957, through the House Financial Services Committee by a 28-21 vote. The bill would establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and require federally held Bitcoin to remain in the reserve for at least 20 years, with US government holdings estimated at 324,527 BTC worth about $24.8 billion at the time of reporting; it still needs to clear further legislative stages before becoming law.
We had a look at the chart, and the first thing that stands out is the recovery from the $75,000 area. The BTC price fell from around $79,000 on September 15 to roughly $75,000 on September 16, but the latest candles have produced a series of higher lows and pushed the price back to $76,478. That puts $76,000-$76,300 as the immediate support area, with the $75,000 region remaining the key downside level.
Source: Tradingview.com
The short-term momentum indicators are also improving. The Stochastic oscillator is at 66.15, with the second line at 64.98, after both indicators climbed from the oversold zone near 25.
The Ultimate Oscillator is also at 57.52, showing that momentum has recovered above the midpoint, although the price still needs to break resistance before the recovery can develop into a larger move.
Above Bitcoin, the first hurdle is around $77,000-$77,600, followed by the $78,000-$78,400 region. A stronger breakout would bring $79,700-$80,000 into view, and the chart has a larger resistance zone around $80,500 before the major $81,500-$83,000 area. The structure still contains lower highs from the September 4 peak, so BTC needs to reclaim these levels to materially improve its short-term setup.
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The bearish path would begin if the Bitcoin price loses $76,000 and then breaks below $75,000. That would put $74,000-$75,000 back into play, with a sustained move below $75,000 weakening the recovery seen over the past two sessions.
The base path keeps BTC between $76,000 and $78,000. Holding above $76,000 and breaking $77,000 could take the price toward $77,600-$78,000, but the Stochastic recovery alone is not enough to confirm a breakout.
The bullish path requires the Bitcoin price to reclaim $78,000 and then clear $79,700-$80,000. A successful break could expose $80,500-$81,000, with $81,500-$83,000 becoming the next major resistance zone.
Bitcoin could trade between $76,000 and $78,000 if support holds. A break above $78,000 could open the way toward $79,700-$80,000, while losing $75,000 could expose $74,000-$75,000.
Why is Bitcoin price rising today
Bitcoin is being supported by stronger equity markets, a softer US dollar, and lower Treasury yields. BTC also has a 0.89 correlation with the S&P 500 and 0.91 correlation with the Nasdaq, making the current move closely tied to broader risk sentiment.
What could push Bitcoin higher this week
Potential catalysts include easing Treasury yields, institutional positioning highlighted by JPMorgan, the upcoming MOEX crypto perpetual futures launch, and progress on the proposed US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
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