The bitcoin price slipped on Friday afternoon to a level that has been regarded for years as the floor of long-term cycles: the 200-week moving average. At around 4:40 p.m. CET, bitcoin cost
The bitcoin price slipped on Friday afternoon to a level that has been regarded for years as the floor of long-term cycles: the 200-week moving average. At around 4:40 p.m. CET, bitcoin cost roughly $68,100, or about €61,700. The daily low was $67,922. The latest slide was triggered by a figure from Washington: US producer prices for October, released at 2:30 p.m. CET, show annual inflation of 6.5 percent at the producer level.
Shortly before the release, at around 2:40 p.m., bitcoin still stood at just under $69,900. Two hours later it was about 2.6 percent lower. Over 24 hours the loss is around 4.5 percent, and the price is now about 46 percent below the record high of $126,080 from October 2025.
Friday started weak. Overnight bitcoin had lost the $70,000 mark, and in the morning the price oscillated between $68,700 and $69,300. In the early afternoon there was a brief recovery attempt to just under $70,000. Sellers erased that gain entirely after the inflation data.
The range over the past 24 hours runs from $72,091 at the top to $67,922 at the bottom. Anyone who bought at Thursday evening's high is about 5.5 percent under water. The Fear and Greed Index from alternative.me, a sentiment gauge built from volatility, trading volume and market data on a scale of 0 to 100, stands at 20, in "extreme fear" territory. On Thursday it was 28, on Wednesday 29.
The Producer Price Index, or PPI, measures how companies' selling prices for goods and services develop. It is seen as a leading indicator because higher costs at businesses often reach consumer prices with a delay.
According to the press release from the US Department of Labor, the index for final demand rose 0.3 percent in October from the previous month. Year on year the increase is 6.5 percent. Goods prices rose 0.5 percent month on month, services 0.2 percent. The narrower core rate, excluding food, energy and trade services, rose 0.5 percent and stands at 4.9 percent year on year.
The monthly figure thus came in slightly lower than economists had expected on average; the consensus estimate was 0.4 percent. The core rate's 0.5 percent monthly rise, however, shows that price pressure across the broader economy is not easing. The market evidently gave that second number more weight than the slightly better headline.
Producer prices measure price pressure at businesses before it reaches consumers.
Bitcoin pays neither interest nor dividends. When yields on safe assets such as US Treasuries rise, holding bitcoin becomes comparatively more expensive, because the investor forgoes that return. High inflation readings raise the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates high or even raises them. Precisely that expectation weighs on assets that benefit heavily from cheap money, and these include cryptocurrencies as well as technology stocks.
Then there is the dollar. Rising rate expectations usually strengthen the US currency, and a stronger dollar makes bitcoin, which is priced in dollars, more expensive for buyers in other currency areas. For euro-based investors this works both ways: the euro price of bitcoin fell slightly less today than the dollar price, around 4.4 against 4.5 percent over 24 hours.
The next release of this kind is already scheduled. The US Department of Labor publishes producer prices for November on December 15, also at 2:30 p.m. CET.
A moving average smooths out price swings by taking the mean of the most recent closing prices. The 200-week line uses the weekly closes of the past almost four years. Because a bitcoin cycle with halving, bull market and bear market lasts roughly four years, this line shows something like the average entry price of an entire cycle.
By our calculation, the 200-week moving average currently stands at around $67,750. It is based on Bitstamp's weekly closes every Sunday from January 15, 2023 to November 8, 2026, exactly 200 weeks. cryptoticker.io compiled this analysis itself on November 13, 2026. Bitcoin is therefore trading only about half a percent above the line.
For comparison: the 200-day moving average, which tracks shorter trends, stands at around $73,100 by the same calculation. The price is almost 7 percent below it, and the medium-term trend clearly points down.
A look at our own data shows how often bitcoin fell below the line this year. In 2026, bitcoin closed below the 200-week moving average in three weeks: on June 28 at $59,473 against a line of $62,442, narrowly on August 2 at $63,500 against $63,551, and on August 16 at $62,832 against $63,996. The yearly low on a daily closing basis was $58,526 on June 30.
What happened next is notable. One week after the last close below the line, on August 23, bitcoin stood at $77,716. So the line gave way several times this summer without turning into a lasting break. That is no guarantee for the present. The line keeps rising every week as old, low prices from 2023 drop out of the calculation. In early January it was still at around $57,000 and has risen by a good $10,000 since then.
Early in the morning we described the break of the $70,000 mark. At that point bitcoin stood at around $69,100. Since then the price has lost a further 1.5 percent. The zone around $69,000, which held several times in the morning, broke in the afternoon. What is new are the inflation data and the approach to the 200-week moving average, which in the morning was still a good $1,300 away.
The mood has stayed the same. The fear index was already at 20 in the morning and has not recovered since. Capital flows also keep pointing in the same direction.
US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $299.8 million on November 11, according to Farside Investors data, of which $269.7 million came from BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust alone. That is according to Analytics Insight. Over 20 trading days, outflows add up to around $1.6 billion, according to the analytics firm Glassnode. Ethereum ETFs also lost $144.8 million on the same day.
A second signal comes from the stablecoin market. Stablecoins are tokens pegged to the dollar that serve as cash on crypto exchanges. According to Glassnode, their supply shrank by around $14.2 billion in the 30 days to November 9, the fastest pace since June 2022. Fewer stablecoins in the market means less money that can flow into bitcoin and other coins at short notice.
For investors in Europe, an exchange-traded product remains an option all the same, though usually via ETPs and ETNs, because US spot ETFs are generally not tradable for retail investors there. If you want to hold bitcoin directly, you buy through a crypto exchange. Our crypto exchange comparison shows which providers hold a licence under the EU's MiCA regulation and what a purchase there costs.
With leverage, even a small price move decides whether a position survives.
A liquidation is the forced closure of a leveraged position when the posted collateral no longer covers the losses. According to CoinGlass data, bitcoin positions worth more than $900 million were liquidated within 24 hours, as Analytics Insight reports, citing CoinGlass. Long positions, that is bets on rising prices, were hit hardest.
Such forced sales amplify a downward move: every closed long position is sold into the market and pushes the price further down, which takes the next position to its limit. On thin days, a decline of 2 percent can quickly turn into one of 5 percent.
A worked example shows the scale: at tenfold leverage, a move of around 10 percent against the position is enough to wipe out the collateral entirely; at twentyfold leverage, about 5 percent will do. Today's move from $72,091 to $67,922 equals just under 5.8 percent and would thus have wiped out any long position with twentyfold leverage opened at the daily high, unless more margin was added.
To the downside, the 200-week moving average at around $67,750 is the next level. According to Analytics Insight, Glassnode places a cluster of earlier purchases between $62,000 and $66,000; many investors have their cost basis in this range, which can cushion selling pressure. The June low was around $58,500 according to Glassnode, which matches our own daily closing prices.
Keith Alan of the analytics firm Material Indicators names a possible target of $57,700, but ties it to a condition: the weekly Relative Strength Index, a gauge of a move's momentum, would have to fall below 41.5. That is the pessimistic reading.
The counterpoint comes from buy orders. Glassnode counts sizeable bids between $68,000 and $72,500. To the upside, bitcoin would first have to reclaim the zone around $69,900, the high before the inflation data. Above that come the 200-day moving average at around $73,100 and the average cost basis of short-term holders, which Glassnode puts at $75,600. As long as the price stays below it, many recent buyers are sitting on losses.
How a sale at a loss is treated for tax purposes depends on your country; crypto tax software records the purchase date and price of every tranche.
Whether the 200-week moving average holds will be decided, under the calculation used here, at the weekly close on Sunday. A close above it would be the first hold after a week with a loss of almost 9 percent, a close below it the fourth this year. Three steps help you approach the situation in an orderly way until then:
(As of November 13, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)
