Bitcoin is worth around the $84,000 today, and the market still looks undecided after last week’s recovery. BTC briefly pushed above $87,000 earlier in the month, but that move has not develo
Bitcoin is worth around the $84,000 today, and the market still looks undecided after last week’s recovery. BTC briefly pushed above $87,000 earlier in the month, but that move has not developed into the kind of continuation bulls were hoping to see. Recent trading has instead pulled Bitcoin back toward the low-$80,000s.
Crypto analyst CryptoCon thinks that hesitation may be more important than it looks.
He has been consistently skeptical of the idea that Bitcoin’s real bull phase is already underway, and his latest Logarithmic MVRV chart gives him another reason to stay cautious. In his view, the market may still be building a convincing false end to the bear market rather than preparing for an immediate move to fresh all-time highs.
CryptoCon’s chart tracks Bitcoin’s price alongside a logarithmic version of MVRV, a metric designed to compare Bitcoin’s market value with the value implied by the price at which coins last moved.
The important part of his chart is the repeating cycle structure.
Previous Bitcoin cycles produced clear primary tops, secondary tops, and later a move all the way back toward what CryptoCon marks as the cycle bottom zone.
The current cycle has not followed that pattern cleanly.
The MVRV line has already produced several weaker peaks through 2024 and 2025, but it never fell all the way back toward the lower green cycle-bottom band.
That is the piece he finds suspicious.
If the old cycle structure is still relevant, Bitcoin may have skipped a part of the process that historically came before the next major expansion.
Another detail on the chart is the long-term decline in MVRV peaks.
The major tops in 2013 and 2017 reached much higher levels than those recorded in 2021, 2024, and 2025. CryptoCon interprets that as evidence that Bitcoin’s cycle tops are gradually becoming less extreme.
That by itself is not necessarily bearish. As Bitcoin becomes a larger asset, lower relative valuation extremes would make sense.
The bigger question is what happens next.
One possibility is that MVRV simply keeps compressing over time and never revisits the old cycle-bottom zone before Bitcoin heads higher.
CryptoCon acknowledges that scenario, but he is not convinced.
His concern is that traders may be assuming this cycle has structurally changed simply because Bitcoin has not yet delivered the reset that older cycles produced.
Read also: Here’s Where Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices Might Go This Week
The green zone at the bottom of the chart is where CryptoCon marks previous cycle lows.
Source: X/@CryptoCon_
Those lows appeared around 2015, 2018, and 2022.
His current projection places another possible visit toward that region around late 2026, rather than showing Bitcoin immediately entering a vertical bull phase.
That does not mean he is calling for Bitcoin to collapse to a specific dollar price.
The chart is showing the MVRV cycle structure, not a direct BTC price target.
His broader point is that valuation data has not yet behaved the way it historically did around a completed bear-market cycle.
That leaves open the possibility that the market still needs another period of stress, sideways trading, or downside before a more convincing long-term advance begins.
CryptoCon believes the period from November through January could answer the biggest question.
If Bitcoin starts accelerating toward new all-time highs during that window, the argument that the old MVRV cycle structure has changed becomes much stronger.
If BTC instead stalls, loses momentum, or begins another larger correction, the recent recovery could start looking more like a trap for traders who assumed the bear market was already over.
His wording is deliberately cautious.
He is not saying new highs are impossible.
He is questioning whether the market has already earned them.
That distinction is important because Bitcoin has already shown how quickly sentiment can flip this year. BTC recently reached an eight-month high above $87,000 before slipping back toward $84,000, while Treasury yields and broader macro pressure have continued to create resistance for risk assets.
It is too early to call the current move a confirmed bull trap.
Bitcoin is still trading well above its 2026 lows, and institutional demand has not disappeared. US spot Bitcoin ETFs even recorded net inflows on September 28 while BTC was struggling around $84,000.
But CryptoCon’s chart makes a fair point: this cycle has not completed some of the same valuation resets that appeared in previous ones.
That means traders are effectively betting on one of two things.
Either Bitcoin’s cycle structure has changed enough that the old MVRV bottom is no longer necessary, or the market still has unfinished business before the next major bull phase.
For now, Bitcoin around $84,000 sits directly between those two interpretations.
CryptoCon clearly leans toward patience. Even if the major lows are already behind us, he does not expect the truly optimistic phase to begin immediately.
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The post Bitcoin Price Warning: BTC Could Be Setting a Massive Trap For the Bulls appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.
