Bitcoin Profitability Nears 2022 Lows as BTC Price Slumps Below $82K: Analyst

Bitcoin’s long-term profitability indicator has fallen close to levels last seen in November 2022, when BTC traded near $16,000, even as the cryptocurrency remains near $82,000 in October 2026.

On-chain data points to a sharp gap between today’s price and investors’ profit conditions, while newer large holders have a much thinner cushion than Binance deposit addresses.

Bitcoin Profitability Indicator Approaches November 2022 Reading

In an October 22 update, on-chain analyst Amr Taha reported that Bitcoin’s 365-day UTXO Block Profit/Loss Count Ratio average had dropped to 13.6, just 14.1% above its November 21, 2022 reading of 11.92. BTC was trading near $16,000 at the time of the earlier reading, compared with more than $82,000 on October 20, 2026.

The cost-basis figures show that not all groups of holders are in the same position. Binance user deposit addresses have a realized price of around $64,200, leaving BTC about 27.7% above that level. New whales, by contrast, have an average cost basis of $77,120, putting the asset just 6.3% above their entry price at the $82,000 reference point. Miner whales and long-term holder whales have lower realized prices of $51,820 and $46,400, respectively.

Taha also pointed to slower growth in Bitcoin’s realized capitalization, a measure based on the price at which units last moved. Its 30-day change reached $12.93 billion on October 22, well below the $40 billion recorded on October 15, 2025, and the $64 billion reading on July 24 that year. Those earlier peaks came before a roughly 52% decline, the analyst noted, although the current positive figure means realized capitalization is still expanding.

BTC Supply in Profit Turns Higher

Bitcoin recently rebounded above $83,000 after slipping toward $80,000, but CoinGecko’s figures at the time of writing put it over 200 bucks below $82,000, down almost 2% in the last 24 hours and nearly 4% in the last 30 days. The OG cryptocurrency is also 24% below its level a year ago and 35% away from its all-time high of over $126,000.

A separate October 22 post from analyst Facundo Fama offered a more constructive historical comparison. Bitcoin’s supply in profit rose during the third quarter of 2026, the first bullish quarter following a downtrend since Q1 2023. In that earlier period, the supply in profit increased from 9 million BTC to more than 14 million, before a broader uptrend continued through 2025.

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