Bitcoin trades near $65,000, down about 49% from its October peak of $126,100. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, says quantum computing fear explains roughly 30% of that gap.
Bitcoin trades near $65,000, down about 49% from its October peak of $126,100. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, says quantum computing fear explains roughly 30% of that gap. He argues a clear developer roadmap could reverse much of the damage within months.
Edwards told Cointelegraph's Trade Secrets that Bitcoin sits about 40% below fair value based on his energy-value model. He attributes most of that gap to quantum uncertainty rather than weak fundamentals. "That means it's more than priced in," he said.
His fix sounds simple. He wants Bitcoin's core developers to publish a two or three year plan describing how the network will resist quantum attacks. "That would discount a lot of the risk pretty much overnight," Edwards said. He predicts a roadmap alone could push the price up by double digits.
Why Quantum Computers Worry Bitcoin Holders
The concern centers on Bitcoin's signature scheme, which relies on elliptic curve cryptography. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could theoretically reverse-engineer a private key from a public key. Early 2026 research from Google suggested this might require far fewer quantum resources than experts previously assumed.
That research changed the tone of the debate. For most of Bitcoin's history, developers treated quantum risk as decades away and not worth rushing. In 2026, several BIP authors started treating it as an active engineering problem instead.
BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, added quantum computing to the risk disclosures in its spot Bitcoin ETF materials. That single disclosure carried weight because it signaled institutional investors were pricing the risk into their models, not just Bitcoin's core developer community.
The Two Proposals Already On The Table
Bitcoin developers merged BIP-360 into the official proposal repository on February 11, 2026. It introduces a new address type called Pay-to-Merkle-Root, built to reduce the public key exposure that makes coins vulnerable in the first place. Developer Hunter Beast, one of its authors, called it a first step rather than a full solution.
Two months later, on April 14, a companion proposal called BIP-361 went further. It outlines a deadline system that would require holders of quantum-vulnerable coins to migrate them to new addresses. Coins left unmigrated after the deadline could be permanently frozen by the network.
That detail sets off the real fight. An estimated 6.5 to 6.9 million BTC sit in address types exposed to a future quantum attack, close to a third of circulating supply. Among them are roughly 1.7 million coins widely believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, dormant since Bitcoin's earliest years.
Freezing lost or forgotten coins cuts against Bitcoin's founding principle that holders control their own keys without network interference. Critics call BIP-361 a step toward the kind of centralized control Bitcoin was built to avoid. Developers backing it argue that doing nothing puts a third of the supply at eventual risk of theft.
Edwards says Bitcoin developers "need to swallow their pride" and commit to a public timeline, even an imperfect one. He argues the current BIPs are "not really" a full solution yet, but that a stated direction matters more than a finished cryptographic scheme right now.
Why The Clock Suddenly Matters
Ethereum has committed to completing its own post-quantum overhaul by 2029. That deadline puts pressure on Bitcoin, since a direct comparison between the two networks becomes unavoidable as 2029 approaches.
Edwards bases his four to five year "Q Day" estimate on public timelines from quantum computing researchers and companies. He also factors in the years Bitcoin would need to design, test, and roll out any fix. BIP-360 co-author Ethan Heilman has estimated that process alone could take years.
Edwards frames the math simply: expert timelines for quantum breakthroughs combined with the current absence of a finished Bitcoin solution produce the discount investors are applying today. He says that discount could shrink fast with a roadmap, or grow if a company like Google announces faster-than-expected progress.
"It's priced in today, but it's not to say that it can't get worse or better," Edwards said. He believes the balance of outcomes favors the upside from here, though he's clear the risk hasn't disappeared.
What This Means For Bitcoin Holders
Nothing about Bitcoin's cryptography is broken today. No quantum computer capable of breaking ECDSA signatures exists, and estimates for when one might still span years. The debate is about preparation timing, not an active exploit.
The open question is whether Bitcoin's developer community can agree on a plan before market anxiety forces the issue. BIP-361's proposal to freeze unmigrated coins remains contentious and could split the community if pushed toward activation without broader consensus.
For now, Edwards' argument gives holders a specific number to watch. Progress on a quantum roadmap, not a finished cryptographic fix, is what he expects markets to reward first.
