October was once Bitcoin’s most dependable month. This year, it is shaping up to be one of its worst. Bitcoin is down 4.2% so far this month, according to a new report from on-chain analytics
October was once Bitcoin’s most dependable month. This year, it is shaping up to be one of its worst.
Bitcoin is down 4.2% so far this month, according to a new report from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant. It closed September at $83,567 and fell to $80,051 by Oct. 25.
That puts Bitcoin on track for a second straight losing October, and the weakest in CryptoQuant’s data going back to 2020.
Every October from 2020 to 2024 ended higher, with gains averaging 18.1%, before October 2025 broke the streak with a 3.8% loss.
Weak demand is the main culprit.
CryptoQuant’s 30-day measure of apparent demand fell to minus 76,000 BTC on Oct. 25, and has been negative every day since Oct. 14. In other words, new buyers are taking in less Bitcoin than miners are creating.
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American investors have been especially quiet. The Coinbase Premium, which tracks demand from US buyers, dropped to minus 0.146 on Oct. 24, its lowest since June 30. It has been negative on every day of October.
Recent buyers have also lost most of their profit cushion. Traders who bought in the past one to three months are now up just 8.1%, down from 33.4% on Sept. 22.
“The cushion that absorbed September’s dips is mostly gone,” CryptoQuant said.
Still, the firm’s Bull Score Index stands at 60, a reading it calls “bullish, cooling,” not bearish.
It pointed to the Fed’s Oct. 28 rate decision and the Nov. 3 midterms as the next tests, with support between $73,000 and $77,600.
Not everyone is worried.
Michael Sullivan, author of Bitcoin Sentiment Weekly, believes Bitcoin is significantly undervalued around $80,000.
In a recent podcast, he described Bitcoin’s climb from its $58,000 low earlier this year as a “disbelief rally” that has been steadily climbing a “wall of worry,” with prices rising despite widespread doubt.
Sullivan pointed out that investor excitement is near levels last seen in 2015, and weaker than during the 2022 bear market.
He said such conditions have historically created strong long-term buying opportunities.
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