More than six million bitcoins rely on public keys already visible on the blockchain, according to the latest Glassnode data. This situation revives concerns around wallet security in the fac
More than six million bitcoins rely on public keys already visible on the blockchain, according to the latest Glassnode data. This situation revives concerns around wallet security in the face of advances in artificial intelligence and quantum computing. While this share represents 31.2% of the circulating supply, Justin Drake calls on industry players to anticipate possible attacks against the cryptographic systems used today.
According to Rafael Schultze-Kraft, co-founder of Glassnode, the exposed supply has increased by 222,000 BTC since the report published in May. This increase represents about 18.2 billion dollars, while the total bitcoin supply has only grown by 64,000 BTC. In total, well over six million tokens rely on public keys already visible. They now represent 31.2% of the circulating supply, about five to six points higher than the low reached in 2023.
Exchanges explain a significant part of this evolution. They concentrate an additional 123,000 BTC in the increase measured by Glassnode and now hold 1.79 million BTC behind visible public keys. However, their level of exposure varies strongly among players. Coinbase shows a proportion of 10%, versus 83% for Binance. These differences illustrate the variations in fund management practices and wallet exposure.
Other companies also present contrasting situations. Fidelity holds about 375,000 BTC, of which only 2% fall into the exposed category by this method. Grayscale reaches 49%, while Revolut shows 99% and Robinhood 100%. These figures describe the visibility of public keys but do not mean that the concerned funds have been compromised. Glassnode’s methodology notably excludes holdings of the US, UK, and Salvadoran governments.
Glassnode data reveal significant gaps in public key exposure: 100% at Robinhood versus 2% at Fidelity. Source: Glassnode.
Public keys can become visible when users reuse certain addresses or use particular transaction formats. Glassnode notably cites old “pay-to-public-key” outputs and Taproot outputs. This exposure alone is not sufficient to access the funds. However, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer or a major mathematical breakthrough could theoretically allow the recovery of the corresponding private keys.
These concerns take on a new dimension with warnings from Justin Drake, a researcher focused on Ethereum. He urges industry players to prepare for a scenario of enhanced defense, referred to as “bunker mode.” According to him, artificial intelligence could discover a vulnerability capable of breaking wallet cryptography within months, in the worst case. This scenario might occur even before sufficiently powerful quantum computers arrive.
The evolution of public key exposure and the alerts on AI thus highlight two distinct but related challenges. On one hand, Glassnode’s data measure an already observable exposure on the blockchain. On the other, Drake’s statements suggest a potential threat whose timing remains uncertain. As computers get more powerful, it may be harder to protect digital assets.
In the short term, monitoring these indicators will remain essential to assess risk evolution. Bitcoin holders and platforms will need to follow progress in artificial intelligence and cryptography to anticipate possible security vulnerabilities. However, the current exposure is not proof of an imminent attack. The actual threat level will depend on technical advances and the sector’s ability to adapt its protections to new risks.
