Bitcoin slipped nearly 2% to about $79,300 on Monday morning. Traders are cutting risk before the Federal Reserve meeting this week. Tech stocks across Asia also fell as the AI trade lost mor
Bitcoin slipped nearly 2% to about $79,300 on Monday morning. Traders are cutting risk before the Federal Reserve meeting this week.
Tech stocks across Asia also fell as the AI trade lost more steam. The Fed will announce its decision on Wednesday, October 28.
Traders are de-risking. Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at BTSE, said all eyes are on how strongly Fed Chair Kevin Warsh hints at a December hike.
Mei also pointed to record-high oil, the escalating US-Iran conflict, and inflation. He said the Fed could sound aggressive, meaning higher rates and less liquidity.
Oil gave a little relief. Brent crude fell 2% from a six-month high to about $114 a barrel after President Trump said a decision on Iran is near. Treasuries rose.
The Bank of Japan meets October 29 to 30. A hawkish surprise could lift the yen and force carry trades to unwind.
Selling hit almost every major token.
Asset
Price
Daily Move
BTC
About $79,300
Down nearly 2%
ETH
Just above $2,300
Down nearly 3%
XRP
$1.28
Down about 3%
SOL
About $100
Down 2%
DOGE, ZEC, HYPE, BNB
Not listed
Down 1% to 2% each
TRX was the only major in the green, up less than 1%.
As per Arab Chain, the index fell to -118.49 US dollars, its lowest level in five months.
It means BTC is cheaper on Coinbase than on Binance. That points to weaker demand from US buyers.
CME FedWatch shows a 90.6% chance the Fed holds rates at 3.75% to 4.00%. A 25-basis-point hike has a 9.4% chance.
Timeframe
Hold (3.75%-4.00%)
Hike (4.00%-4.25%)
Now
90.6%
9.4%
1 day ago (Oct 23)
90.0%
10.0%
1 week ago (Oct 16)
84.5%
15.5%
1 month ago (Sep 25)
35.8%
64.2%
So the words around the decision may matter more than the decision itself.
Trader Jason Pizzino posted a video asking that very question after the drop below $80,000.
Metric
Value
Futures volume (24h)
$37.61 billion (down 14.69%)
Open interest
$53.73 billion (down 0.40%)
Options open interest
$38.49 billion (up 0.37%)
Long/short ratio
0.9685
Liquidations (24h)
33.09M(27.08M long, $6M short)
Liquidations (1h / 4h / 12h)
$1.59M / $15.46M / $26.88M
Shorts hold a slight edge overall. Yet account ratios favor longs: Binance 2.268, OKX 2.21, and Binance top traders 2.3921 (accounts) and 1.6582 (positions).
Options volume fell 33.22% to $2.36 billion. Circulating supply is 20.10 million BTC out of 21 million.
Price sits below the 20-day EMA at $81,846 and the 50-day EMA at $80,733. The RSI is near 41, which shows weak momentum.
Level
Type
Note
$84,000 to $87,404
Resistance
Upper channel, range top
$82,500
Resistance
Floor lost last Thursday
$80,700 to $81,850
Resistance
50-day and 20-day EMA
$79,000 to $78,000
Support
Immediate zone
$77,629
Support
100-day EMA
$76,300 to $74,000
Support
200-day EMA and next target
Liquidity clusters sit near $81,500 and $79,000. With sellers in control, a sweep of the downside cluster may come first.
If $79,000 to $78,000 breaks, a slide toward $76,300 to $74,000 is possible.
If buyers defend support and reclaim $80,700 to $81,850, a move toward $84,000 to $87,400 opens up.
For now, the chart favors more downside or sideways trade. Nothing is certain.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Crypto is volatile, and you can lose money. Do your own research and speak with a licensed advisor before investing.
