Key takeaways Bloomberg strategist sees Bitcoin potentially falling toward $10,000 A 20% US stock correction underpins scenario CryptoQuant founder challenges forecast with onchain valuation
Bitcoin could fall toward $10,000 if the U.S. stock market suffers a 20% correction, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone, who argues that the cryptocurrency's weakening trend may be an early warning of a broader financial-market downturn.
In an October 16 post, McGlone warned that Bitcoin's retreat from its 2025 peak above $100,000, rising government bond yields and tighter monetary conditions could signal an approaching reversal across risk assets.
His $10,000 scenario would represent an approximately 88% decline from Bitcoin's recent trading levels near $82,000. However, the target is conditional on a substantial U.S. equity-market selloff, not a confirmed prediction that Bitcoin will reach that price.
Why Bloomberg's McGlone Sees Bitcoin Falling to $10,000McGlone's argument centers on Bitcoin's historical sensitivity to liquidity and investor risk appetite.
The strategist believes Bitcoin has frequently led broader speculative markets during periods of expansion, making its recent weakness potentially important for equities and commodities.
His Bloomberg Intelligence chart compares the 50-week moving averages of Bitcoin, the S&P 500, a broad metals index and copper futures.
The chart shows Bitcoin's moving average turning lower after a sharp advance, while the other indicators have remained comparatively resilient.
That divergence raises the possibility that cryptocurrencies are reacting to tighter financial conditions before traditional markets experience a larger correction.
Recent market activity supports the concern about pressure from borrowing costs. Bitcoin's earlier decline below $83,000 coincided with rising Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and leveraged-position liquidations.
Higher bond yields also increase the attractiveness of interest-bearing investments relative to non-yielding assets.
As the relationship between real yields and Bitcoin illustrates, tighter monetary conditions can make speculative investments less appealing.
CryptoQuant Founder Disputes the $10,000 Bitcoin ScenarioNot everyone agrees that a 20% equity correction would send Bitcoin back toward $10,000.
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju challenged McGlone's outlook on October 16, pointing to approximately $58 billion in Bitcoin ETF inflows and 1.3 million BTC held by corporate treasury companies.
Ju argued that even a complete reversal of those institutional positions would leave an estimated onchain cost-basis floor closer to $30,000.
He also questioned the historical precedent for McGlone's target. According to Ju, Bitcoin trading at $10,000 would imply a market-value-to-realized-value ratio, or MVRV, of approximately 0.2.
That would be substantially below the 0.6 reading he identified as Bitcoin's worst historical valuation bottom.
Institutional flows remain another important variable. Bitcoin recently experienced $729 million in ETF withdrawals across two trading sessions, demonstrating how quickly investor positioning can deteriorate.
Nevertheless, fund flows and historical MVRV readings cannot guarantee that a particular price level will hold during extreme market stress.
Could a Stock Market Crash Pull Bitcoin Lower?McGlone's warning arrives as financial institutions increasingly examine the possibility of a wider equity correction.
The International Monetary Fund recently warned that an AI-driven stock selloff could spread through leveraged financial markets and expose vulnerabilities in credit and funding conditions.
A simultaneous decline in equities and cryptocurrencies could intensify losses among investors holding leveraged positions across both markets.
However, Bitcoin's longer-term investment outlook remains contested. VanEck has separately outlined a $500,000 Bitcoin valuation scenario, based on Bitcoin capturing a larger share of gold's monetary value.
Neither assessment establishes where Bitcoin will trade next. McGlone's model emphasizes macroeconomic stress and historical market relationships, while opposing views focus on institutional ownership and onchain valuation.
The crucial question is whether Bitcoin's recent weakness precedes a deeper correction in U.S. stocks—or whether the cryptocurrency stabilizes without the broader market downturn required by McGlone's extreme scenario.
