At 04:51 CET, the California governor's race had no votes reported, according to NBC News, based on AP data. Polls in California close at 05:00 CET. Gavin Newsom cannot run for a third term,
NBC News, based on AP data, projects Xavier Becerra as the winner of the California governor's race against Steve Hilton. At 05:38 CET the count stood at 63.9 to 36.1 percent with 36.5 percent counted. Polls in California close at 05:00 CET. Gavin Newsom cannot run for a third term, and Republicans have not won the governorship since 2006. On the same ballot is Proposition 40, a one-time 5 percent tax on California residents worth more than $1 billion, which has drawn more than $140 million in opposition donations according to filings through 22 October, with Ripple and its co-founder Chris Larsen among the donors. On Proposition 40, Yes stood at 42.9 and No at 57.1 percent with 37 percent counted at 05:38 CET. Polymarket put passage at 3.4 percent at 05:38 CET.
California election results: the key facts
California and other Western states count for days, so the first numbers tell you little about the final margin. We estimate about 8,334,000 votes are still out, most of them in Los Angeles, Orange, Santa Clara. Race calls can come quickly in a state this large and this Democratic, while close House districts and ballot measures can stay open much longer.
Source: AP via NBC News, own estimate
Los Angeles County went from D+32.9 in the 2024 presidential race to D+47.6 now, with 47 percent counted. San Diego County went from D+16.8 in the 2024 presidential race to D+20.4 now, with 55 percent counted. Orange County went from D+2.7 in the 2024 presidential race to D+11.9 now, with 49 percent counted. Riverside County, in the Inland Empire, went from R+1.3 in the 2024 presidential race to D+15.5 now, with 40 percent counted. Across the larger areas with at least half of the count in, the margin moved 3.6 points toward Democrats on average. These figures compare a partial count with a full presidential count, so the final swing can still change in either direction.
County Trump vs Harris 2024 Hilton vs Becerra 2026 Counted Los Angeles D+32.9 D+47.6 47 % San Diego D+16.8 D+20.4 55 % Orange D+2.7 D+11.9 49 % Riverside R+1.3 D+15.5 40 % San Bernardino R+2.1 D+16.8 46 % Sacramento D+19.7 D+28.5 40 % San Mateo D+50.3 D+50.0 42 % Fresno R+4.4 D+8.0 40 %
Source: AP via NBC News, 2024 results via NBC News
Xavier Becerra was attorney general of California from 2017 to 2021 and US secretary of health and human services from 2021 to 2025. Steve Hilton is a Republican political commentator. They advanced from a top-two primary on 2 June with 61 candidates on the ballot, ahead of Democrats including Katie Porter and Tom Steyer.
Proposition 40 would charge a one-time 5 percent tax on the net worth of residents worth more than $1 billion, with January 1, 2026 as the residency cut-off. Ninety percent of the money would go to state-funded healthcare, including Medi-Cal, and the rest to food assistance and public education. Ballotpedia's summary counts publicly traded securities at their market value on 31 December 2026, private business interests and other financial instruments toward net worth, so founders' stakes in private companies would be part of the calculation.
The revenue is disputed. The union behind the measure, SEIU-UHW, estimates $100 billion. The state's Legislative Analyst's Office expects a temporary gain of up to tens of billions of dollars and a possible loss of less than $1 billion a year in income tax. Stanford and Hoover researchers estimated a net cost of $39 billion and found a net loss in 85 percent of their simulated scenarios. Seven of the state's estimated 214 billionaires, including Peter Thiel, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, were reported to have left around the deadline.
This is where the vote reaches the crypto industry. The main opposition committee, backed by Building a Better California, a group co-founded by Brin and Eric Schmidt, had raised $118 million by August, primarily from Brin, Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen and John Doerr. Ballotpedia's filing data shows Brin with $102 million and Doerr with $30 million as the largest donors through 22 October. Thiel reportedly gave around $100 million to a separate committee. The group also sponsored two rival measures on the same ballot: Proposition 41, which would require audits of new special taxes and bar new taxes from being exempted from the state spending limit, and Proposition 42, which would ban new taxes on retirement holdings, personal assets and savings as well as retroactive taxes. Both contain a clause under which they would void Proposition 40 if they receive more votes than it. All of them are on NBC's ballot measure page.
The company itself is in the fight too. Ripple spent $56 million across state and federal elections this year, including roughly $5 million to Golden State Promise, a statewide committee against the tax, and $49 million to federal PACs with a crypto-friendly agenda, Mission Local reported in July. Larsen and Bitcoin investor Tim Draper also launched Grow California, which claims about $40 million in commitments and aims to counter union-backed wealth tax plans.
Supporters include Senator Bernie Sanders, Representative Ro Khanna, the California Democratic Party and six Nobel laureates in economics. Opponents include Newsom, both candidates for governor, The Washington Post and the Los Angeles Times. The six Nobel laureates wrote that a yes would "kickstart a movement" to tax the ultra-wealthy elsewhere, so wealthy holders of company stock and tokens outside California have a reason to watch too. In the House races, Tech Influence Watch lists $3,321,568 from the Fairshake affiliate Protect Progress in twelve California districts and $1,015,758 from Fairshake in District 45.
California elects all 52 House members this year on maps redrawn under Proposition 50, and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi is among those not running again. Because the state counts slowly, the final seat numbers may not be known for days. All calls are in our midterm results live ticker. More from the states: why Florida's governor race got so close, Texas and the Bitcoin reserve and the biggest changes since 2024.
With the race called, the prediction market has little left to price. The open question for traders is the balance of power in Washington. The separate market on Proposition 40 shows what traders expect from the tax vote. If you hold coins through a week like this, compare regulated crypto exchanges and crypto brokers first. This article is not investment or tax advice.
