Canada falls into recession for the first time since pandemic

Canada has slipped into a technical recession for the first time since the pandemic, after Statistics Canada reported on Friday that the economy contracted for a second consecutive quarter, a result that caught economists and markets by surprise. 

Real GDP fell 0.1 per cent on an annualized basis in the first quarter of 2026, following a revised 1.0 per cent decline in the fourth quarter of 2025, the agency said. Two consecutive quarters of negative annualized growth meet the most widely used definition of a technical recession. 

Analysts polled by Reuters and the Bank of Canada had forecast growth of 1.5 per cent for the quarter.

The Canadian dollar weakened after the data dropped, falling 0.28 per cent to C$1.3819 per U.S. dollar, according to Reuters. Two-year government bond yields slipped 7.7 basis points to 2.430 per cent.

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What dragged Canada's economy down

Statistics Canada pointed to two main culprits: a spike in gold imports and a weak March for Canada's resource extraction industries. Higher imports reduce GDP because they represent money flowing out of the domestic economy rather than being spent at home. 

On the export side, gains in crude oil and natural gas shipments were largely offset by a sharp drop in passenger vehicle and light truck exports, a direct consequence of U.S. tariffs hitting Canada's auto sector.

Business capital investment fell 0.7 per cent in the first quarter, its fifth consecutive quarterly decline, as companies held back on spending amid trade uncertainty. Household spending was a rare bright spot, growing in financial services and food but that was mostly cancelled out by weaker business and government investment.

Dan Kelly, president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, said that tracks with what he is hearing on the ground. 

"Most businesses are basically in a holding pattern, they're treading water, hoping for brighter days," Kelly told CBC News, adding that the confidence needed to invest simply is not there among business owners right now.

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Is it actually a recession?

Economists are divided. 

"The trade-induced contraction in GDP last quarter meant the economy tipped into a technical recession at the start of the year," Capital Economics said in a note, adding that rising oil and gas activity suggest the economy likely rebounded in April.

Randall Bartlett, deputy chief economist at Desjardins Group, pushed back, saying his firm is not prepared to call it a recession, arguing the weakness was not widespread enough across the economy to warrant the label, Reuters reported.

It is worth noting that the previous two technical recessions, during the pandemic in 2020 and the oil shock in early 2015, both saw consecutive declines on a quarterly basis as well as an annualized basis. This time, quarterly GDP was essentially flat.

What's next?

Statistics Canada's advance estimate for April points to a 0.4 per cent monthly rebound, driven by a recovery in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas. 

The Bank of Canada, which forecast 1.2 per cent growth for 2026, down from 1.7 per cent last year, will update its projections in July. 

Money markets are currently pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike in December, even as most economists expect no change in interest rates through the year, according to Reuters.

The upcoming review of the North American free trade agreement and continued crude price volatility tied to the Middle East conflict add further uncertainty to the outlook.

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