The crypto market enters a heavy week under pressure. Total market cap is $2.75 trillion, down 1.6% in 24 hours. Bitcoin has fallen below $80,000. The Fed decides on rates on 28 October. Big
The crypto market enters a heavy week under pressure. Total market cap is $2.75 trillion, down 1.6% in 24 hours. Bitcoin has fallen below $80,000.
The Fed decides on rates on 28 October. Big US data follows within a day.
No single event explains it. Traders are mostly waiting on the Fed, inflation, and growth numbers.
Recent sessions also hit leveraged retail positions. Sellers have been in control.
Period
Score
Mood
Now
50
Neutral
Yesterday
54
Neutral
Last week
59
Greed
Last month
74
Greed
The score fell from 74 to 50 in a month. Greed has faded, but fear has not taken over.
In September, the Fed raised rates by 0.25 points to 3.75% to 4%. It was the first hike in more than three years.
CME FedWatch now shows a 90.6% chance of no change and 9.4% for a hike. No cut is priced in.
Date checked
No change (3.75% to 4%)
Hike (4% to 4.25%)
25 Sep 2026
35.8%
64.2%
16 Oct 2026
84.5%
15.5%
23 Oct 2026
90.0%
10.0%
Now
90.6%
9.4%
New York Fed President John Williams said there is no urgency to raise rates again right away. Traders will watch Chair Kevin Warsh's press briefing for clues.
Date
Event
Forecast and previous
28 Oct
Fed rate decision
90.6% chance of no change
29 Oct
September PCE inflation
Headline 3.6% yearly vs 3.4% in August. Monthly 0.5%. Core 0.3% monthly, 3.1% yearly
29 Oct
Initial jobless claims
198,000 expected vs 194,000 last week
29 Oct
US Q3 GDP
3.0% to 3.2% vs 2.2% in Q2
30 Oct
Japan jobs data, BOJ decision
Rate call due
All week
Earnings
35% of S&P 500 companies report
Hotter inflation could keep hike fears alive. A calm tone from the Fed may help buyers. Nobody knows yet.
Metric
Bitcoin
Ethereum
Total open interest
2,201
18,604
Call open interest
1,177
8,720
Put open interest
1,024
9,884
Put/call ratio (open interest)
0.87
1.13
Max pain price
$80,000
$2,320
24h put volume
5,043.50
28,769
24h call volume
5,168.70
30,315
Put/call ratio (volume)
0.98
0.95
Notional value
$176.88 million
$43.34 million
Bitcoin leans slightly bullish by open interest. Puts stack up at $76,000, $79,000, and $80,000, which may act as support. Calls cluster at $81,000, $81,500, and $86,000, possible resistance.
Ethereum leans slightly bearish. Large put interest sits at $2,100 and $2,200. Calls gather at $2,560 and $2,700.
If $79,000 to $78,000 breaks, a slide toward $76,300 to $74,000 is possible. A move toward $76,000 would signal a real downtrend.
If buyers reclaim $80,700 to $81,850, the way to $84,000 to $87,400 opens.
Liquidity clusters sit near $81,500, $79,000, and $78,800. A sweep lower may come first.
If buyers defend $2,300 to $2,280 and reclaim $2,360 to $2,460, a rally toward $2,500 to $2,550 could follow.
If ETH breaks below $2,280 and stays there, $2,220 and $2,150 come into view. The max pain price of $2,320 sits in between.
The bearish case rests on fewer large wallets, higher exchange balances, and a break below $1.26.
If $1.26 fails, $1.11 comes first, about 12% lower. The channel then points to $0.98, about 22% below $1.26.
As per Ali, if $1.26 holds, XRP could stay between $1.26 and $1.34 for a while. None of this is certain.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Crypto prices are very volatile, and you can lose money. Do your own research and speak to a licensed advisor before you invest.
