Ether ETF buyers sit at an average of $3,200: the Ethereum price levels that count until then

Buyers of the US Ether ETFs got in at just under $3,200 on average. According to CoinGecko, Ether cost around $2,425 on Wednesday evening, roughly 24 percent less. What is documented: the cost basis estimate comes from James Seyffart, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, and the fund data from SoSoValue. Our assessment follows further below: the cost basis is a distant level, and for the coming weeks the lines between $2,157 and $2,506 are what count.

There are two triggers. After the US election, Ether rose 5.7 percent in 24 hours, clearly more than Bitcoin at 3.5 percent. At the same time, the US spot Ether ETFs lost money on Tuesday for the seventh trading day in a row. Where the price could head over a horizon of months is covered in our Ethereum price prediction. This article answers a narrower question: what does it mean for the price that a large share of fund investors are sitting on losses?

ETF cost basis just under $3,200: the Bloomberg Intelligence estimate

The cost basis is the average price at which a fund's investors bought their shares, weighted by the size of the inflows. If the market price is below it, the average investor is sitting on a paper loss. Seyffart puts this figure for the US spot Ether ETFs at just under $3,200. The financial site 24/7 Wall St. picked up the figure on Tuesday; at that point Ether stood at $2,296, 28 percent below the buyers' average.

The report does not say exactly how the figure was calculated. Such estimates usually weight daily net inflows by the Ether price on each day. That explains why the figure is so high: the large inflows arrived in phases when Ether traded between $3,000 and almost $5,000. The all-time high of $4,946 dates from August 2025.

How much Ether the funds hold

According to 24/7 Wall St., the US Ether ETFs hold around 5.86 million ETH. With roughly 122.2 million ETH in circulation, that is about 4.8 percent of all Ether. BlackRock's ETHA fund accounts for around 51 percent of it. According to SoSoValue, the net assets of all funds stood at $13.32 billion on Tuesday, and cumulative net inflows since launch at $12.06 billion.

Paper loss of the Ether ETFs: around $4.5 billion by our calculation

A simple back-of-the-envelope calculation shows the order of magnitude. With a cost basis of $3,200 and a price of $2,425, each Ether is $775 short. Applied to 5.86 million ETH, that gives a paper loss of around $4.5 billion. Because Seyffart speaks of just under $3,200, this is an upper bound; the actual figure is likely somewhat lower. On Tuesday evening, at $2,296, the same calculation still gave around $5.3 billion.

To get back to the cost basis, Ether would have to rise by around 32 percent from today's level. That is a different yardstick from the daily move. Even the jump after election night narrowed the gap by only around $130.

Around 5.86 million ETH sit in the custody of the US Ether ETFs, about 4.8 percent of all Ether.

Election night and recovery: Ether jumps from $2,227 to above $2,400

On the night of the US midterms, Ether fell as low as $2,227 according to CoinGecko, the low of the past 24 hours. The price then turned higher and reached as much as $2,443 on Wednesday. Why Ether gained more than Bitcoin after the election result is described in a separate piece we published in the afternoon on the Ethereum price after the midterms.

For the cost basis question, the recovery is above all a test. A six percent rise brings ETF investors closer to their cost basis, but nowhere near it. Whether it holds will show in the fund flows over the next few days.

Seventh day of outflows: Ether ETF flows are getting smaller

On Tuesday, a net $85.35 million flowed out of the US Ether ETFs according to SoSoValue data, TokenPost reports. Of that, $74.44 million came from ETHA and $10.91 million from the Grayscale ETH fund. The remaining nine funds recorded no outflows. It was the seventh straight day of outflows.

On Monday the figure had still been $139.7 million, so the outflow slowed by around 39 percent. Since October 5, net outflows have added up to around $1.65 billion, while the funds' net assets fell from $17.7 billion to $13.2 billion. Most of that decline is explained by the lower price, not by redemptions.

Why a cost basis can become a price ceiling

The mechanism is familiar from the stock market. Many investors sitting on a losing position wait for the price to return to their own purchase price and sell there to get out without a loss. The more investors have their cost basis in the same zone, the more sell orders meet there. Professionals call this an overhang of supply. 24/7 Wall St. concludes that the $3,200 level could act as resistance, a price at which rallies stall.

With ETFs there is a second step. When an investor redeems shares, the fund sells the corresponding Ether or delivers it to a trading partner who sells it on the market. The redemption therefore becomes real supply on the spot market. Whether the zone around $3,200 really acts as a brake is open: so far, fund investors have also absorbed a $4.5 billion loss in value without a mass exit.

Who is on the other side

On the buying side, BitMine stands out. According to its own announcement of November 2, the company held around 6.06 million ETH and had bought another 8,573 ETH, around $19.7 million, in the week before. That means BitMine alone holds slightly more Ether than all US ETFs combined. Its purchases are small, though, compared with the outflows of a single weak fund day.

Since Tuesday: the $2,242 level has held

In our Tuesday morning analysis of the ETHA outflows, Ether stood at $2,249, and we had named $2,242, the October 31 low, as the lower level. That level was briefly breached on election night, with a low of $2,227, but Tuesday's daily close of $2,250 was above it. Since then, Ether has gained around 7.8 percent.

The upper level we named then, $2,455, the average of the last 30 daily closes, has not yet been taken; the daily high of $2,443 stayed just below it. What is new is that the 20-day and 100-day lines, both at around $2,351, are now below the price instead of above it. The 200-day line at $2,157 was not tested again this week.

In Germany, losses on directly held Ether can only be offset against private capital gains from the same calendar year.

Ethereum price: six levels between $2,157 and $3,200

We calculated the moving averages ourselves from CoinGecko daily closing prices, as of Wednesday evening. The other levels come from the price history and from the Bloomberg Intelligence estimate.

• $3,200: the estimated cost basis of US ETF buyers. It is around 32 percent away.
• $2,710: the highest daily close of the past 30 days. Above it, this month's decline would be recovered.
• $2,506: the simple 50-day average, around 3.3 percent above the current price. It is the first line that will show whether the post-election recovery is more than a one-day jump.
• $2,351: the 20-day and 100-day averages, which are almost level with each other. If Ether falls back below them, the election jump has fizzled out.
• $2,227 to $2,242: the election night low and the October 31 low.
• $2,157: the simple 200-day average, the floor of the current decline.

Between $2,506 and $3,200 lie almost $700 without any significant line. In exactly this range, many ETF investors would have reduced their losses but not yet erased them. How strong the pressure from redemptions becomes there can be read from the daily fund data that SoSoValue and Farside publish after the US market close.

Loss offsetting until December 31: using Ether losses for tax in Germany

What applies to US fund investors also affects many investors in Germany: anyone who bought Ether in the past twelve months is often in the red at $2,425. Directly held crypto assets fall under Section 23 of the German Income Tax Act. After a holding period of more than one year, a sale is tax-free; within that period, the gain is taxable once all private capital gains in a year together reach the exemption limit of €1,000. Whether the one-year period will remain is politically open; our page on the status of the holding period reform summarises where things stand.

A loss within the holding period is not worthless for tax purposes. Realised losses from private sales can be offset against gains of the same type from the same calendar year, and any remaining loss can be carried back to the previous year or forward to later years. Anyone who has already realised gains on other coins in 2026 has until December 31 to make an Ether loss count in the same year. That requires a clean record of all purchases and sales, which a crypto tax tool generates from exchange data. Whether a sale makes sense depends on your own situation and is not a question of price alone; if in doubt, a tax adviser can clarify it.

ETNs instead of US ETFs: Ether in a German securities account

Private investors in Germany usually cannot buy the funds whose cost basis this article is about. US ETFs lack the key information document required under the EU regulation on packaged investment products, so German custodian banks generally reject the order. Via a securities account, the route in Germany leads to ETNs, exchange-traded notes that are often backed by physical Ether. Which products are available is shown in our overview of crypto ETFs and ETNs in Germany.

For tax purposes, custodian banks usually treat an ETN as a security and withhold the flat-rate withholding tax. The one-year period for a tax-free sale therefore generally does not apply there, and losses end up in the bank's loss offset pot instead of in the investor's own tax return schedule for private sales.

Our assessment: the $3,200 ceiling is still a long way off

Our assessment: the ETF buyers' cost basis is not a level at which the price will be decided in the coming weeks. One reason is the gap of around 32 percent that Ether still has even after the election jump. Another is that outflows slowed by 39 percent on Tuesday, even though the price was still at $2,296 at the time. Anyone who wanted to sell for fear of further losses had plenty of opportunity in October. The 50-day line at $2,506 is closer and more important.

Against this view: seven straight days of outflows are no sign of calm, and the election jump is so far only a single trading day old. If outflows return to Monday's level, the zone around $2,227 to $2,242 comes back into focus. This assessment is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Crypto assets are highly volatile, and a total loss is possible.

Ether below the ETF cost basis: the 50-day line at $2,506 is what counts

Three steps that follow from the figures in this article:

1. Note your own purchase prices. If you know where your own cost basis lies, you can put the levels above in context and decide on loss offsetting before the turn of the year. You will find a tool for this in the crypto tax software comparison.
2. Choose your access to Ether. Buying directly with a holding period requires an exchange licensed under MiCA; the providers are listed in the crypto exchange comparison. If you prefer to go through a securities account, you will find the ETNs in the overview of crypto ETFs and ETNs in Germany.
3. Read the fund data after the US market close. A first day of inflows after seven days of outflows would be a signal, an outflow above $140 million the opposite. If you want to react to such signals at short notice, you need access with clear fees; see the crypto broker comparison.

(As of November 4, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy. Crypto investments are high-risk, and a total loss is possible.)