Key Highlights Ethereum is trading at $1,573.59 — down -6.20% in 24 hours — with a -46.96% year-to-date loss and a market cap of approximately $189.9 billion — more than 68% below its Decembe
Key Highlights
Ethereum is in pain — and the numbers are historic. Trading at $1,573.59 after a -6.20% 24-hour decline, ETH has now lost nearly 47% year-to-date and more than 68% from its August 2025 all-time high of $4,953.73. For context, the 2022 bear market that many consider Ethereum’s darkest period took ETH to approximately $880 — a level that now looks like a distant reference point from above.
Ethereum (ETH) Price/Source: Coinmarketcap
But beneath the price carnage — two independent analysts have identified the same data point simultaneously: Ethereum’s RSI is at the lowest level ever recorded in the token’s 10-year history. And every prior extreme reading has eventually resolved in the same direction.
As we covered in our Ethereum whale accumulation and bullish fractal analysis and our Vitalik Buterin native privacy roadmap article, Ethereum’s fundamental development has continued progressing through the price correction — with whales accumulating and the core team advancing privacy infrastructure upgrades simultaneously. The RSI and technical confluence arriving now adds a quantitative layer to that fundamental picture.
The Monthly Chart — Historic RSI Low Meets Symmetrical Triangle Support
The monthly chart above delivers the most important technical context for understanding where Ethereum stands right now — and why the current price action is generating significant analyst attention.
The Symmetrical Triangle
Since the 2021 top, Ethereum has been forming a large symmetrical triangle on the monthly chart — defined by a descending upper resistance trendline connecting successive lower highs and an ascending lower support trendline connecting successive higher lows. The pattern has contained all of ETH’s major price swings since 2021 — including the 2022 bear market, the 2024 recovery, and the December 2025 ATH of $4,953 which tested the upper boundary.
ETH is now testing the lower boundary of this symmetrical triangle near the $1,500 area — the most critical support level the pattern defines. This lower trendline has held as support at every prior test — marked clearly on the chart with the caret indicators showing the historical bounce points. The current test is the most significant yet — arriving after the largest percentage decline from an ATH in the current cycle.
Ethereum $ETH Monthly Chart-Coinsprobe/Source: Tradingview
The RSI panel on the monthly chart shows the most alarming and potentially most bullish signal simultaneously. The monthly RSI has declined to approximately 40 — the lowest level in Ethereum’s entire history — labelled clearly on the chart as “RSI ATL NEAR 40.”
To contextualise this reading: the monthly RSI reaching 40 means ETH’s long-term momentum has compressed to a level it has never touched in its existence — not during the 2018 crash, not during 2020’s COVID collapse, and not during 2022’s bear market that took ETH to $880. The current reading is genuinely unprecedented on the monthly timeframe.
The critical technical observation: the RSI all-time low is arriving simultaneously with the price testing the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle. This dual confluence — extreme momentum exhaustion meeting structural price support — is the setup that historically produces the highest-conviction reversal opportunities. The lower trendline provides the price support. The historic RSI low provides the momentum foundation for a bounce.
While the monthly chart provides the macro context — trader @sergio_tesla_ has done the essential quantitative work on the daily RSI data. The table above documents the 6 deepest daily RSI episodes in Ethereum’s history since 2021 — all instances where the daily RSI fell below 25 — and tracks what happened to ETH’s price in the subsequent 30, 60, and 90 days.
Chart: ETH After Its Deepest Daily RSI Lows | Source: Brighter Data — @sergio_tesla_
The most important observation from this data:
Even in the worst-case scenario — the 2023-08-18 episode — ETH recovered to +18.1% within 90 days despite being negative at both 30 and 60 days. And the worst 90-day return across all 6 episodes was +1.6% — meaning not a single prior extreme daily RSI reading failed to produce a positive return within 90 days.
The median returns are compelling — +7.2% at 30 days, +20.7% at 60 days, +25.8% at 90 days — but it is the floor that matters most for risk management: the worst case produced a small positive return at 90 days in every single instance.
The symmetrical triangle’s lower boundary near $1,500 is not just a trendline — it is the structural support that has defined Ethereum’s macro range since 2021. Previous tests of this boundary — visible on the monthly chart — each produced significant bounces. The ascending nature of the lower trendline means each successive test occurs at a higher price level — and each bounce has been from a higher base.
A hold at the current lower boundary test — with the RSI at an all-time low providing the momentum foundation — could trigger the same structural bounce that prior lower boundary tests produced. A break below this level — on a sustained monthly close — would represent a more serious structural shift that would require reassessment.
The $1,500zone is therefore the most critical level in Ethereum’s current chart — both as the triangle support and as the accumulation zone that the extreme RSI reading suggests buyers should be defending.
As we detailed in our Vitalik Buterin native privacy roadmap article, Ethereum’s core development has not paused during the price correction. Vitalik recently outlined three concrete near-term technical upgrades — AA + FOCIL for censorship-resistant private transactions, EIP-8250 Keyed Nonces targeting the Hegota fork, and Kohaku access-layer work — that represent the most credible native privacy roadmap Ethereum has produced.
The combination of extreme RSI readings at structural support, historic whale accumulation, and continued fundamental development creates the multi-dimensional setup that has preceded Ethereum’s most significant historical recoveries.
Ethereum at $1,573 with a monthly RSI at an all-time low near 40 — testing the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle that has held since 2021 — is the most technically and quantitatively significant setup ETH has produced in years. The daily RSI data from @sergio_tesla_ is unambiguous: six prior extreme readings, five positive at 30 days, six positive at 90 days — worst case +1.6% at 90 days across the entire sample.
The lower triangle boundary near $1,500 is the floor that the RSI data says buyers should be defending — and the historic RSI low provides the momentum foundation for the bounce that structural support alone cannot guarantee.
The “ETH is dead” narrative has been wrong three times before. The data suggests it may be wrong again.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.
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