Hedera has struggled along with the broader altcoin market, but one investor believes the weakness is an opportunity to accumulate rather than a reason to leave. Crypto commentator Bmendo lai
Hedera has struggled along with the broader altcoin market, but one investor believes the weakness is an opportunity to accumulate rather than a reason to leave.
Crypto commentator Bmendo laid out four reasons he is buying more HBAR: most of the token supply has already been released, Hedera has genuine network utility, institutions have already used the network for real transactions, and the regulatory picture in the US has improved.
There is substance behind several of those arguments.
But one number in Hedera’s own supply schedule deserves particular attention.
Bmendo pointed first to Hedera’s fixed 50 billion HBAR supply.
That figure is correct, and Hedera Council data shows 43.853 billion HBAR had been released by the end of Q3 2026, equivalent to 87.71% of total supply.
The utility argument also holds up.
Hedera prices network fees in dollars but requires those fees to be paid in HBAR. This gives businesses predictable operating costs without removing HBAR from the network’s economic model.
And there is evidence of serious institutional experimentation beyond simple partnership announcements.
Lloyds Banking Group, Aberdeen Investments and Archax completed a transaction in July 2025 in which tokenized money-market fund units and UK gilts were used as collateral for FX trades. The assets were issued, transferred and held through Archax on Hedera.
Regulatory clarity has improved too. SEC educational guidance published in April 2026 lists HBAR among its examples of “digital commodities” rather than securities. That is meaningful for the ecosystem, although it should not be interpreted as blanket SEC approval of Hedera or every HBAR-related product.
This is where the bullish thesis needs more context.
Hedera’s latest Treasury Management Report forecasts released supply rising from 43.85 billion HBAR at the end of Q3 to approximately 47.84 billion by the end of Q4.
That is nearly 4 billion additional HBAR in one quarter.
I’m buying more $HBAR. Here’s what’s behind my conviction: • 50B total supply, with 43.85B already released at the end of Q3 2026-87.71%. Remaining releases still matter. • Network fees start at $0.0001, are priced in USD and paid in HBAR. Predictable costs for businesses, direct utility for the token. • Real institutional execution: Lloyds, Aberdeen and Archax completed a tokenized-collateral FX pilot on Hedera in July 2025. That’s a completed transaction-not just a partnership announcement. • The SEC’s 2026 guidance explicitly includes HBAR among its digital-commodity examples. Meaningful clarity, although not blanket approval of every use. My thesis: more tokenization and paid network activity can strengthen HBAR demand. Low fees mean adoption needs to reach substantial scale-that’s the opportunity I’m backing. These facts don’t prove a price bottom. But they’re why I believe now is a time to accumulate, and why I’m adding. #HBAR #Hedera #CryptoAlpha #Bitcoin
— Bmendo (@Bmendo_X) November 1, 2026
It would represent an increase of about 9.1% relative to Q3’s released supply and would bring the released share of the fixed supply from 87.71% to approximately 95.69%.
That does not mean all 4 billion tokens will immediately be sold.
“Released” and “sold into the market” are not the same thing. But it is still a substantial change in available supply that HBAR buyers should account for.
Ironically, if Hedera executes that schedule, the longer-term supply argument becomes considerably cleaner afterward, since less than 5% of the 50 billion HBAR would remain unreleased.
Check my recent video about Hedera below:
This is the harder part of Bmendo’s thesis.
HBAR is required for network fees, so increased Hedera activity does create genuine token utility.
But Hedera’s extremely low fees work both ways.
Because fees are denominated in dollars, the amount of HBAR needed for the same transaction actually decreases when HBAR’s dollar price increases.
That means Hedera probably needs enormous transaction scale before fee demand alone becomes a powerful driver of HBAR valuation.
Bmendo acknowledges this himself, and that is arguably the strongest part of his argument.
The Lloyds transaction proves institutions can use Hedera. It does not prove they will generate enough activity to materially change HBAR demand.
So is he right to accumulate?
His underlying thesis is reasonable: most of the supply distribution is nearing completion, HBAR has direct network utility, regulatory uncertainty has improved, and Hedera has demonstrated real institutional use.
What has not yet been proven is the final link in the chain: that those advantages will produce enough sustained HBAR demand to outweigh remaining token distribution and push the price materially higher.
That is the bet HBAR buyers are really making.
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The post Is It Time to Buy Hedera? Here’s What This HBAR Bull Gets Right – and Wrong appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.
