TLDR J.P. Morgan Asset Management projects a 10% compound annual return for Bitcoin over the next 10 to 15 years. The forecast is higher than the firm’s outlook for U.S. large-cap stocks (7.5
J.P. Morgan Asset Management has published its first long-term return forecast for Bitcoin. The firm expects the cryptocurrency to deliver a 10% compound annual return over the next 10 to 15 years.
The projection appears in the firm’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, released Monday. This is the 31st annual edition of the report and the first to include Bitcoin.
The 10% figure is higher than the firm’s forecasts for several traditional assets. JPMorgan projects 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks, 5.5% for gold and 7% for a classic 60/40 stock and bond portfolio.
The report places Bitcoin’s annualized volatility at 55%. By comparison, gold’s volatility is about 17%.
Because of these large price swings, Bitcoin’s arithmetic average return comes in at 20.9%. That figure is a simple average of yearly gains and is more than double the compound return investors would actually keep.
JPMorgan did not add Bitcoin to its main covariance matrices, the models it uses to track how assets move together. “For the first time, we put a range on bitcoin returns, though we do not yet include bitcoin in our main covariance matrices,” the report says.
The firm instead built a separate, smaller matrix comparing Bitcoin with a subset of assets. It cited the cryptocurrency’s volatility and unstable correlations as obstacles to wider portfolio inclusion.
JPMorgan also disputed a popular argument for Bitcoin. The report called the idea that currency debasement will drive a rush into crypto “wide of the mark.”
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan responded to the forecast on X. “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you’ll be the best-performing asset of the next decade,” he wrote.
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you'll be the best-performing asset of the next decade. pic.twitter.com/TuOuH51l3c
— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) October 20, 2026
Hougan said JPMorgan’s 55% volatility assumption is too high, which makes the return forecast too conservative. Bitwise manages crypto index funds and ETFs, so it has a stake in that view.
The report arrives as JPMorgan expands its own blockchain work. The bank is bringing JPM Coin, a token representing dollar deposits, to the Ethereum network.
JPMorgan has also joined BlackRock, Goldman Sachs and the DTCC in efforts to tokenize stocks.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $526.7 million in inflows on Monday. That was their best day since Sept. 22.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust took in $665.2 million on the day. The inflows cut October’s net outflows to about $88 million.
The 10-year Treasury yield held above 5%, offering a competing return with far less volatility. JPMorgan’s own global bond forecasts are at their highest level in two decades.
Bitcoin hovered around $82,000 after the report’s release. By Wednesday, it was trading near $83,470, up 0.22% over 24 hours.
The post JPMorgan Forecasts 10% Annual Bitcoin Return in First Long-Term Outlook appeared first on Blockonomi.
