JPMorgan analysts say recent moves by U.S. regulators are cushioning the blow from the stalled CLARITY Act, but they warn the relief may not last without a law from Congress. In a report, ana
JPMorgan analysts say recent moves by U.S. regulators are cushioning the blow from the stalled CLARITY Act, but they warn the relief may not last without a law from Congress.
In a report, analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said recent actions by the SEC, CFTC and OCC have partially offset the negative impact of the Senate's failure to advance the bill. He believes the legislation is unlikely to pass this year and may be delayed until 2027.
The analysts pointed to several agency measures. The SEC introduced a five-year exemption for tokenized stocks in September, allowing firms to test the technology while preserving shareholders' financial and voting rights. The CFTC is exploring ways to expand leveraged crypto trading on regulated U.S. platforms. The analysts said that initiative remains preliminary and is unlikely to advance before 2027.
The OCC has awarded national trust charters to a growing number of stablecoin issuers and digital asset firms, bringing custody, reserve management and issuance under federal supervision. The Independent Community Bankers of America has sued the OCC over aspects of the approvals.
The core concern is durability. The analysts wrote that agency rulemaking is less durable than legislative statutes, because agencies can repeal or amend rules in later administrations and are vulnerable to courts, while repealing statutes would require another act of Congress. Until comprehensive market structure legislation passes, political and legal risk premiums will remain elevated, and if Democrats win the White House, existing measures could be reversed as soon as two years from now.
On September 15, the Senate voted 49 to 50 on cloture for the motion to proceed with H.R. 3633. Because 60 votes were required, the bill did not advance. Given other legislative priorities and the time left in the 119th Congress, law firm DLA Piper noted the bill may not advance further before the new Congress in January.
The bill would still matter for the market if revived. It would create a formal division of authority between the SEC and the CFTC and set a test for when a token counts as a commodity rather than a security, according to bit.com. Other analysts have also pointed to agencies carrying the load for now. TD Cowen's Lance Vitanza said near-term passage looks increasingly unlikely, but regulatory changes are still moving forward through SEC rulemaking.
For crypto businesses, the takeaway is that recent progress rests on agency discretion rather than statute. A new administration or a successful court challenge could reopen questions that many firms hoped were settled, leaving $BTC, $ETH and other assets exposed to policy swings until Congress acts.
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