Oil Price Forecast: Brent Faces Biggest Weekly Crash Since 2020 as Iran War Premium Fades

Key takeaways

• Brent faces steepest weekly decline since 2020
• Iran peace expectations erase geopolitical risk premium
• Hormuz tanker attacks keep supply uncertainty elevated

Brent crude oil is heading for its biggest weekly percentage decline since the COVID-19 pandemic, with prices falling approximately 16% as investors increasingly anticipate a de-escalation of the US-Israeli war against Iran.

January Brent futures traded near $98.60 per barrel at 11:29 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $91.

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Brent's projected weekly decline would also be its largest in dollar terms in LSEG records dating to 1988. However, the weekly figures remain provisional until trading closes.

Brent Crashes 16% as Iran War Expectations Shift

The selloff accelerated after the November 3 US midterm elections, when Democrats won both chambers of Congress.

Investors interpreted the result as increasing political pressure for a negotiated settlement with Iran, potentially allowing additional Gulf oil exports to return to international markets.

Brent plunged more than 8% on Wednesday alone, reaching a two-month low near $94.62.

The move followed an earlier decline below $103, when President Donald Trump indicated that Washington had no immediate plans for additional strikes.

Oil's reversal is particularly dramatic because Brent traded above $116 in late October following tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz.

That earlier rally reflected fears of prolonged export disruptions rather than an immediate shortage of equivalent size.

As Coinpaper explained in its analysis of oil prices and OPEC supply, futures markets respond to expected supply conditions, not simply barrels currently available.

Strait of Hormuz Attacks Threaten Oil's Recovery

Despite falling prices, the Middle East's physical supply risks have not disappeared.

Britain's maritime security agency UKMTO reported that attacks on oil-carrying vessels remained close to record levels.

A seafarer was killed following an explosion aboard an oil-products tanker, while further incidents renewed concerns about shipping safety.

The disruptions follow earlier US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, which temporarily pushed crude prices higher.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed to maintain September's required production levels for December rather than announce another increase. The decision reinforces the distinction between official output targets and oil actually reaching buyers.

Earlier Iran peace negotiations and the OPEC+ production freeze demonstrated how quickly diplomatic expectations can outweigh production decisions.

Oil Price Forecast: Can Brent Reclaim $100?

Brent's immediate resistance sits around $100, followed by $103–$105 if prices sustain a recovery.

However, a stronger rebound toward $110 would likely require renewed supply concerns or a significant deterioration in negotiations.

Coinpaper's previous oil price forecast highlighted Eurasia Group's conditional $110–$125 escalation scenario.