Key points: Bitcoin is under pressure as net outflows from the BTC ETFs highlight a shift in institutional investor sentiment. Most major altcoins look weak, suggesting the bears are in contr
Key points:
Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $75,000 on Wednesday, indicating that the bears are slowly taking charge of the crypto market. Institutional investors seem to be on a selling spree, with BTC exchange-traded funds recording net outflows of $1.88 billion since May 15, per Farside Investors' data. Glassnode said in a post on X that persistent net outflows from BTC ETFs on nearly every trading day since May 7 add “to the supply side without a visible demand offset.”
BTC’s weakness has sent it tumbling below its long-term valuation average, according to Bitwise. The asset management firm said in a recent report that in the past, only 36% of BTC’s market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) readings were lower than the current level of 1.42. In comparison, roughly 99% of historical Nasdaq-100 price-to-book ratios were below their present levels, signaling the widest valuation gap on record between BTC and US tech stocks.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
While others panic, a whale has used the drop as a buying opportunity. Blockstream CEO Adam Back said in a post on X that a BTC whale had hoovered up 450 “cheap Bitcoins” per day for the past eight and a half days using a time-weighted average price method.
Could BTC and select major altcoins bounce off their strong support levels? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
BTC turned down from the 20-day exponential moving average ($77,431) on Tuesday, signaling that the bears are selling on minor relief rallies.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The bulls will attempt to defend the crucial $76,000 to $74,289 support zone, while the bears will strive to pull the BTC price below it. If the support zone crumbles, the short-term advantage will tilt in favor of the bears. The BTC/USDT pair may then descend to the support line near $70,500, which is likely to attract buyers.
On the contrary, if the price bounces off the support zone, the bulls will again strive to drive the pair above the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the pair may rally to $82,000 and then to $84,000.
Buyers have failed to push Ether (ETH) back above the support line, indicating that the bears are attempting to flip the level into resistance.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
There is psychological support at $2,000, but if that level cracks, the ETH/USDT pair may decline to the $1,916-$1,750 zone.
Buyers have an uphill task ahead of them. They will have to push the ETH price above the moving averages to signal strength. If they do that, it suggests that the market has rejected the breakdown below the channel. That increases the likelihood of a rally to $2,465, then to the channel's resistance line.
Buyers are attempting to sustain BNB (BNB) above the 20-day EMA ($652), but the bears have kept up the pressure.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
If the 20-day EMA gives way, the bears will strive to strengthen their position by pulling the BNB price below the 50-day SMA ($636). If they can pull it off, the BNB/USDT pair may tumble to $610, then to $570.
Conversely, if the price rebounds off the moving averages, it suggests demand at lower levels. The bulls will then again endeavor to clear the $687 overhead hurdle. If they do that, the pair may rally to $730 and then to $790.
XRP (XRP) continues to gradually slide toward the $1.27 support, indicating that the bears remain in control.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Buyers are expected to mount a strong defense at $1.27, but the relief rally is likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($1.37) and then at the downtrend line. If the XRP price declines sharply from the 20-day EMA, it increases the likelihood of a break below $1.27. If that happens, the XRP/USDT pair may plunge to $1.11 and then to $1.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the downtrend line. The pair may then climb to the $1.61 resistance. Buyers will have to pierce the $1.61 level to signal a potential trend change.
Solana’s (SOL) has been getting squeezed between the 20-day EMA ($86.42) and the $82.65 support.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The 20-day EMA has started to turn down, and the RSI is in the negative territory, indicating a slight edge to the bears. If the price breaks below $82.65, the SOL/USDT pair may plummet to the $76 support.
Alternatively, if the SOL price rises sharply from the $82.65 level and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it suggests the pair may remain within the $76 to $98 range for a while longer.
The failure of the bulls to push Dogecoin (DOGE) above the 20-day EMA ($0.10) suggests a negative sentiment.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Sellers are attempting to sink the DOGE price below $0.10, opening the door to a retest of $0.09 support. Buyers are expected to defend the $0.09 level with all their might, as a close below it may sink the DOGE/USDT pair to $0.08.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price rises and closes above the 20-day EMA, it suggests the pair may extend its range-bound action between $0.09 and $0.12 for a few more days. Buyers will have to secure a close above $0.12 to start a new uptrend toward $0.14 and then $0.16.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) pulled back from $64.93 on Monday, signaling profit-booking by short-term traders.
HYPE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The bulls are attempting to arrest the pullback at the breakout level of $59.41. If they succeed, it suggests that the bulls have flipped the level into support. That improves the prospects of a break above the $64.93 level. The HYPE/USDT pair may then surge toward $77.
Instead, if the HYPE price breaks below $59.41, the correction may deepen to the 20-day EMA ($52.14). Buyers are expected to fiercely defend the 20-day EMA, as a slide below it would signal the start of a deeper correction toward the 50-day SMA ($44.92).
Related: Three key XRP metrics suggest ‘explosive price expansion’ is next
Zcash (ZEC) declined from the $690 level on Monday, indicating profit-taking by short-term traders.
ZEC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Sellers are attempting to sustain the price below the 20-day EMA ($571), opening the door to a deeper correction. If they manage to do that, the ZEC price may plummet to $486 and then to the 50-day SMA ($457).
The 20-day EMA is flattening, and the RSI has dropped toward the midpoint, indicating that the bulls are losing their grip. Buyers will have to thrust the ZEC/USDT pair above $690 to seize control.
Cardano (ADA) remains below its moving averages, indicating that the bears have the advantage.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Sellers will endeavor to pull the ADA price to the $0.22 support. Any attempt by the bulls to start a recovery is expected to face strong selling at the 20-day EMA ($0.25). If the price declines sharply from the 20-day EMA, it increases the risk of a break below $0.22.
On the upside, a break and close above the moving averages suggests that the ADA/USDT pair may continue to oscillate inside the $0.22 to $0.31 range for some more time. The next trending move is expected to begin on a close above $0.31 or below $0.22.
Monero (XMR) has been trading within an ascending channel, suggesting buyers have the edge.
XMR/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The XMR price has bounced off the 50-day SMA ($378), indicating buying on dips. There is resistance at the downtrend line, but if the level is breached, the XMR/USDT pair may rise toward the resistance line. The bullish momentum may pick up if buyers drive and maintain the price above the resistance line.
Contrarily, if the price turns down from the downtrend line and breaks below the 50-day SMA, it suggests that the bears are selling on rallies. The pair may then drop to the support line.
