Solana Price Falls Nearly 4x Harder Than Bitcoin in October

Key Takeaways

Alpenglow went live; SOL fell 5% next day.

US Solana ETFs shed $30.3M in five days.

Market-wide liquidations top $816M, 84% longs.

SOL down 15% in October, Bitcoin about 4%.

Binance’s SOL/USDT daily chart on TradingView shows the token about 19% below its recent swing high, trading near $100.8 with the daily candle still open.

Upgrade day ended at resistance

Solana switched on Alpenglow on Wednesday, replacing TowerBFT, the consensus system the network had run since 2020. Solana’s official account on X said finality “just went from ~12.8 seconds to ~150ms.” For exchanges crediting deposits and merchants taking payments, that means a transaction becomes irreversible in a fraction of a second instead of several seconds, according to Anza, the engineering firm behind the upgrade. The 150ms figure still awaits independent measurement.

The token did not get the same lift. SOL rallied to about $109 on upgrade day, straight into its main resistance cluster, and gave the move back with a drop of about 5% the next session.

Where the selling came from

Two forces have worked against SOL since then, one specific to Solana and one hitting the whole market.

Fund flows (SoSoValue)

$30.3M net out of US spot Solana ETFs in the five trading days to October 22

About $8.5M out on October 22, with no fund taking in money

Net inflows on just two October days through October 22

Leverage (CoinGlass, 24h)

$816M in crypto futures liquidated market-wide

196,239 traders liquidated

Largest single liquidation: an $11.85M Ether position on Binance

Longs 84.3% · $688M Shorts 15.7% · $128M

Most of the liquidations hit in the final 12 hours of that window, as Bitcoin slid toward $80,000. On their own, the numbers do not say whether SOL has a problem of its own or is simply caught in a falling market. The October scorecard does.

SOL −15% Bitcoin −4% Approximate change from each coin’s October open.

SOL is down about 15% from its October open near $118, while Bitcoin, trading near $80,500 on Saturday, has lost roughly 4% over the same stretch. The market-wide flush explains the timing of Saturday’s drop. It does not explain why SOL has fallen nearly four times as far as Bitcoin this month, and the steady drain from the ETFs is the clearest Solana-specific reason.

Three tests of $100

The round number carries extra weight because it also sits on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of SOL’s move from about $60 to $125.

Oct 15 Low just above $100, and buyers stepped in. Oct 18 A second low just above $100, followed by the bounce that carried SOL into upgrade day. Oct 24 An intraday low near $98.6 before price climbed back above $100.

The first two tests held on a closing basis. Saturday’s was the first to trade through the level, which makes the daily close the number to watch.

Levels above and below $100

● Recent swing high ~$124.9 +24% ● 50-day SMA + 0.236 Fib ~$109.6 +9% ◆ Current price ~$100.8 – ● 0.382 Fib + $100 round number ~$100.1 −1% ● 100-day SMA to 0.5 Fib ~$92.4–$96.5 −4% to −8% ● 200-day SMA ~$88.3 −12% ● Golden pocket (0.618-0.65 Fib) ~$82.7–$84.8 −16% to −18% ● 0.786 Fib ~$73.9 −27%

The 50-day SMA supported SOL through September and early October before rolling over, and it now caps rallies alongside the 0.236 Fib. Below $100, there is a gap of about 4% before the next support, so a clean break would leave little to slow a move until the 100-day SMA. The 100- and 200-day averages are both still rising, which keeps the long-term trend pointing up.

The case for each side

Bulls can argue that Saturday’s break came in the middle of a market-wide liquidation wave, the kind of forced selling that can fade once leveraged positions are cleared.

Bears can point to the size of the ETF drain. The $30.3 million that left in five trading days equals about 2% of the roughly $1.53 billion the US Solana funds hold, a steady withdrawal of the kind of patient demand that usually turns a relief bounce into a recovery.

Potential Moves (not a forecast)

SOL is clinging to $100, with the $109.6 resistance cluster overhead and the $92.4–$96.5 zone below.

↗ If $100 holds: A daily close back above $105, roughly halfway to resistance, could set up a retest of the 50-day SMA and 0.236 Fib.

↘ If $100 gives way: A daily close below it before the end of October could open a slide toward the 100-day SMA and 0.5 Fib.

◎ Bigger picture: The 200-day SMA sits just above the golden pocket. Holding it would keep the long-term structure intact, while losing it would put the golden pocket in play.

Method: daily SOL/USDT candles from Binance on TradingView, with the latest candle still open. Fibonacci levels run from the recent swing low to the swing high. Liquidation figures are a CoinGlass snapshot from Saturday evening. October performance is measured from each coin’s approximate monthly open.

This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency prices are volatile.

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