Solana (SOL) enters October at around $118.60 (according to CoinGecko, Friday evening, October 2, 2026). The month has a nickname among crypto investors, Uptober, because Bitcoin has closed i
Solana (SOL) enters October at around $118.60 (according to CoinGecko, Friday evening, October 2, 2026). The month has a nickname among crypto investors, Uptober, because Bitcoin has closed it in the green in almost every recent year. For the Solana price prediction a look back is therefore worthwhile: how did October go for SOL itself? We analysed the monthly candles from Binance going back to 2020.
The result is clearly inconclusive. Three Octobers ended in the green, three in the red. In 2023 SOL gained 79.7 percent between October 1 and October 31, in 2021 it gained 43.2 percent and in 2024 10.6 percent. Against that stand 2020 with minus 46.5 percent, 2025 with minus 10.3 percent and 2022 with minus 2.1 percent (monthly candles from Binance against USDT).
Solana in October: change from October 1 to 31 in the years 2020 to 2025, monthly candles from Binance.
For comparison: Bitcoin ended October in the green in five of the six years, and only 2025 brought a loss, of 3.9 percent (same source). The reputation of October therefore comes from Bitcoin, not from Solana. And even there the same caveat applies: six years are a small sample from which no rule can be derived.
The range of the previous years is too wide for a reliable rule.
The one-year chart shows that Solana fell a long way and has been recovering since the summer. Over twelve months SOL is down around 49 percent, over 30 days it is up around 19 percent (CoinGecko). The price sits above the 50-day average (around $104) and the 200-day average (around $97), both calculated from the daily closing prices at CoinMarketCap.
Solana over 365 days: daily closing prices with the 50-day and 200-day averages, as of October 2, 2026.
Around $122 is the level on the upside. SOL closed at $122.10 on September 25 and has not reached higher since. The round $120 mark sits just below it and has been missed on a closing basis every single day since September 28.
$115 is the level on the downside, the close from September 23 and the lowest since September 21. Below it lies the zone around $111, where SOL closed from September 18 to 20 before the price jumped above $118.
Around $104, the 50-day average, is the next line. Solana hovered around this line, between roughly $99 and $106, for almost all of early September.
This October a technical overhaul is planned for Solana: the switch to the new Alpenglow consensus mechanism, which at the same time ends support for the transitional Frankendancer client. What that means for validators and stakers is something we set out on Friday. On top of that come the spot ETFs in the United States, which collected money in September and reported outflows at the end of the month for the first time in weeks, as our analysis of the ETF flows shows. Neither of the two existed in any of the previous years.
First: do not read the October record of the previous years as a roadmap. At Solana the range ran from minus 46 to plus 80 percent, which is not a rule but an indication of how widely the price swings. Second: watch the band between $115 and $122, as a closing price outside it is the next signal. Third: match the position size to those swings and not to the best Octobers of the past.
Solana has traded between $115 and $122 since September 21.
Anyone holding SOL can stake the coins and earn a running yield from them. What applies to the holding period is set out in our article on staking yield and the holding period at Solana, with providers and terms in the comparison of staking providers. Gains on coins held for less than a year are taxable on sale in Germany as soon as the annual allowance of 1,000 euros is exceeded.
Whether entering at the current price is worthwhile is assessed by our analysis Is Solana a good buy?. Crypto assets swing sharply and a total loss is possible. This article analyses past price data; it is neither a forecast nor a recommendation to buy or sell Solana.
(As of October 2, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)
