Morgan Creek Capital founder Mark Yusko compared SpaceX to Dogecoin(DOGE), arguing its post-IPO structure could leave retail investors absorbing losses as insiders sell. Key Points: Yusko sai
Morgan Creek Capital founder Mark Yusko compared SpaceX to Dogecoin(DOGE), arguing its post-IPO structure could leave retail investors absorbing losses as insiders sell.
- Yusko said SpaceX’s limited public float gives insiders unusual influence over the stock’s supply and market narrative.
- He questioned whether the company’s valuation can support expectations for another 10-fold gain.
- His warning centers on valuation, negative free cash flow and the risk that retail buyers provide liquidity for early investors.
Yusko delivered the criticism in a recent interview, focusing on the small share of SpaceX stock available for public trading and the concentration of ownership among Elon Musk and early investors.
He argued that the structure can create scarcity around the stock, supporting a high market price while leaving public investors exposed when larger holders eventually sell.
“SpaceX is the equivalent of Dogecoin,” Yusko said, comparing concentrated ownership of the company with the meme coin’s sentiment-driven market.
He said influential holders can shape the narrative around an asset while a larger community buys into expectations of future gains. Yusko acknowledged that SpaceX operates a real satellite business, but questioned its broader growth story and said negative free cash flow remains a concern.
His strongest objection was the valuation.
Yusko said investors expecting SpaceX to rise 10-fold from a roughly $2 trillion valuation are relying on arithmetic he considers unrealistic. “The US GDP today is $31 trillion. If SpaceX goes 10x, you're saying one company with no profits is going to be half of US GDP. It's not going to happen,” he said.
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Yusko’s argument challenges a central assumption behind high-growth IPO investing, that a successful private company can repeat the returns produced by earlier technology giants after entering public markets.
He rejected comparisons with early Microsoft or Apple, saying SpaceX is entering the market at a far larger starting valuation. In his view, that leaves less room for the multiple expansion that rewarded investors in earlier technology cycles.
The criticism also highlights a broader risk around newly listed companies with strong brands and limited public floats.
Scarce tradable supply can intensify demand during an IPO, while later insider sales can increase supply and pressure the stock.
SpaceX went public in June 2026 in one of the largest market debuts on record, briefly reaching a valuation above $2 trillion before its shares retreated toward the IPO price in July. The reversal has sharpened debate over valuation, insider ownership and future profitability.
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