SpaceX Stock Price Prediction 2026, 2030, 2040, 2050 SpaceX stock keeps swinging as new lockup shares hit the market. SPCX closed at $139.65 on Wednesday, down 2.57% on the day, right before
SpaceX stock keeps swinging as new lockup shares hit the market. SPCX closed at $139.65 on Wednesday, down 2.57% on the day, right before a fresh 319 million-share unlock landing on August 20.
That drop pushes the question a lot of traders are asking this week. Where does SpaceX stock price go from here, and what do the 2030, 2040, and 2050 outlooks look like once the lockup noise fades?
SPCX opened at $144.96 and closed at $139.65, a fall of $3.69 in the session. The stock touched a low of $136.72 and a high of $145.01 during the day.
Volume came in at about 72.5 million shares, well under the roughly 120.2 million share average. In after-hours trading, the SpaceX share price slipped a little further to $138.09.
Metric
Value
Last close
$139.65 (-2.57%)
After-hours price
$138.09
Day range
$136.72 - $145.01
52-week range
$104.83 - $225.64
Market capitalization
$1.841 trillion
Volume
72,530,278
Average daily volume
120,249,602
Exchange
NASDAQ
Average analyst target
$222 - $228
Next earnings date
November 3, 2026
Why Is SpaceX Stock Falling This Week?The SPCX stock price is under pressure mainly because of the 319 million-share lockup unlock set for August 20.
Roughly 7% of total shares outstanding become eligible for sale, and more supply usually weighs on price if demand does not keep pace.
This is the second major unlock since the June 2026 IPO. The first tranche landed on August 6 and doubled the public float overnight, based on trading commentary.
SPCX actually rallied after that one, rising 6.1% on the day and another 15.8% the next session, before reclaiming its $135 IPO price on August 10.
A few other headlines are adding to the pressure. China's LandSpace reportedly landed a reusable rocket booster, matching a feat SpaceX had long owned on its own.
Separately, AI startup Cognition AI denied acquisition talk with the company, after chatter suggested interest from Elon Musk's side. None of this is confirmed through official filings, so it is worth treating as developing news rather than settled fact.
On the fundamental side, second-quarter revenue came in at $7.81 billion, above the roughly $6.9 billion analysts expected, with the net loss narrowing from a year earlier. The AI segment grew more than 200% year over year, and Starlink added over a million net subscribers in the quarter.
When Is the Next SpaceX Share Unlock?Lockup expirations are central to any SpaceX stock price prediction right now, since the company only IPO'd in June 2026.
Date
Event
Unlock Size
Approx. Total Float
June 2026
IPO
Initial float
~5%
Aug 11
Wave 1
+20%
~25%
Aug 20
Unlock
+7%
~32%
Sep 10
Unlock
+7%
~39%
Sep 25
Unlock
+7%
~46%
Oct 10
Unlock
+7%
~53%
Oct 25
Unlock
+7%
~60%
Nov 9
Q3 unlock
+28%
~60%
Dec 9
180-day unlock
Remainder
~58-60%
Jun 13, 2027
Founder unlock
Remainder
~100%
By year-end, roughly 4.9 billion SPCX shares could be free to trade, close to 70% of the stock not held by Musk. Musk's own stake, near 6.4 billion shares or about 48% of the company, stays locked until June 2027, so the single biggest holder is not a near-term seller.
SpaceX Stock Price Prediction 2026For the rest of 2026, the SpaceX stock price prediction mostly comes down to supply. More tranches are due in September and October, on top of this week's unlock.
On the daily chart, SPCX keeps getting turned away near $150, close to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the move from the $225.64 high to the $104.83 low. The 14-day RSI sits near 57.7, above its signal line, pointing to improving momentum without looking overheated.
Fibonacci Level
Price
0.236 (support)
$133.36
0.382 (resistance)
$150.98
0.5
$165.23
0.618
$179.48
0.786
$199.76
If SPCX holds above $133 to $135, the recovery structure stays intact, and a push toward $165 to $179 is possible into year-end.
A slip under that zone would suggest buyers are losing conviction, with the November 3 earnings report as the next real catalyst.
Scenario
2026 Target Range
Bearish (unlock pressure wins)
$108 - $133
Base case (range-bound)
$133 - $151
Bullish (clears resistance)
$151 - $180
SpaceX Stock Price Prediction 2030Looking out to 2030, SpaceX expects to be flying crewed lunar missions, which is part of why the long-range spread on this stock is so wide.
Phillip Capital's bearish case puts a $75 target on the table, built on the idea that negative cash flow could persist that far out.
On the bullish side, the 3.618 Fibonacci extension sits near $540, a level that would need sustained revenue growth and margin improvement across both Starlink and the AI segment.
Separately, ARK Invest has modeled a 2030 enterprise value scenario using Monte Carlo simulations across 17 variables, landing on a base case near $2.5 trillion, a bear case near $1.7 trillion, and a bull case near $3.1 trillion, driven mainly by Starlink's buildout and Starship's reusability economics.
Source
2030 Target
Phillip Capital (bear case, share price)
$75
Fibonacci 3.618 extension (bull case, share price)
~$540
ARK Invest (enterprise value, bear/base/bull)
$1.7T / $2.5T / $3.1T
A quick note on methodology: the 2030, 2040, and 2050 figures in this article come from different models built on different assumptions, so they are not meant to connect into one smooth curve.
Wall Street's 12-month analyst targets, which run as high as $800 in some polls, describe expectations for the next year, not for 2030 or beyond. Treat each horizon's numbers as a separate scenario rather than a continuous forecast.
SpaceX Stock Price Prediction 2040A handful of forecasting models do stretch a SpaceX stock price prediction out to 2040, though the spread between them is wide enough to make the point on its own.
One algorithmic model puts the average 2040 target near $294, with a bearish case around $70 and a bullish outlier as high as $1,298.
The revenue-side estimates are just as scattered. Morgan Stanley has reportedly modeled SpaceX revenue reaching $3.4 trillion by 2040, a number that would require the AI and space economy to keep compounding for well over a decade.
Fund manager Ron Baron has floated an even bigger idea, suggesting SpaceX could be worth $20 trillion to $30 trillion by 2040 if it grows the way Amazon once did.
Those are opinions, not commitments. A 2040 target depends on whether the AI segment, which posted a $1.3 billion operating loss last quarter against $15.8 billion in AI capex, ever turns into a real profit center, and whether Starlink keeps compounding subscribers as low-earth orbit gets more crowded. Treat any single 2040 number as a scenario, not a prediction you can bank on.
Source
2040 View
Algorithmic model average
~$294 (range $70 - $1,298)
Morgan Stanley (revenue basis)
$3.4 trillion in annual revenue
Ron Baron (market cap basis)
$20 trillion - $30 trillion company
SpaceX Stock Price Prediction 2050Out to 2050, forecasts stop being price targets and turn into back-of-the-envelope growth stories. One widely cited scenario analysis models two paths: a less bullish case where SpaceX's valuation only grows from about $1.8 trillion to roughly $2 trillion by 2050, and a bullish case where the company would need to roughly quadruple to around $7 trillion, implying close to 19% annual revenue growth for 25 straight years.
Neither path is a guarantee, and the gap between them shows how much a 2050 SpaceX stock price prediction depends on assumptions nobody can verify today, like long-run profit margins and how big the AI and space economy actually becomes.
By then, the real question is whether SpaceX turns into a durable infrastructure company spanning launch, connectivity, AI compute, and possibly lunar or Mars activity, or gets overtaken by competitors and new technology over a 25-year stretch.
Scenario
2050 View
Conservative (modest growth)
~$2 trillion valuation
Bullish (~19% annual revenue growth)
~$7 trillion valuation
Long-term holders thinking in these terms are really underwriting SpaceX's execution over decades, not trading a specific price level.
Who Owns the Most SpaceX Stock?Institutional ownership is unusually concentrated for such a young listing.
Holder
Position
Elon Musk
~6.4B shares (~48%), locked until June 2027
Alphabet
~551M shares, near $77B
Nvidia
~123M shares (~17B),plusaseparate~21B stake tied to its earlier xAI investment
Founders Fund (Peter Thiel)
~427M shares
Antonio Gracias
500M+ shares
Harvard Management Company
~$2.2B position
Intesa Sanpaolo
$966M position
Norway's sovereign wealth fund
0.05% stake, ~$1.22B
Fidelity, BlackRock, Baillie Gifford, and Ontario Teachers also hold hundreds of millions of shares combined, based on recent 13F filings.
Will Tesla and SpaceX Merge?Part of the buzz around SPCX stock involves prediction markets pricing the odds of a Tesla-SpaceX merger. Recent readings put the chance of a deal before 2028 somewhere between 60% and 71%, though that figure has moved around a lot and independent forecasting panels have shown noticeably lower odds.
No formal merger has been announced by either company, so this remains a betting-market signal rather than confirmed news.
What to Watch Next for SpaceX StockThis week's 319 million-share unlock is the immediate test. More lockup tranches follow through the fall, with Musk's own shares not freeing up until mid-2027.
Whether SPCX can clear and hold the $150 to $151 zone may say a lot about near-term direction.
A daily close below $133 would suggest sellers are back in control, at least short-term. The November 3 earnings report is the next big scheduled catalyst either way.
DisclaimerThis article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Prices can go up or down, and past performance does not indicate future results. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
