This was supposed to be the week CLARITY reached the Senate floor, and it came and went without a vote. The text still hasn’t landed on Majority Leader John Thune’s desk, odds of passing befo
This was supposed to be the week CLARITY reached the Senate floor, and it came and went without a vote. The text still hasn’t landed on Majority Leader John Thune’s desk, odds of passing before the August recess have dropped to around 30%, and the banking lobby is working to reopen the compromise it signed off on last winter. The one bright spot was the Fed, which held rates at 3.5 to 3.75% instead of raising them, keeping a near-term hike off the table even as three officials voted for one.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs booked a third straight week of net inflows. That follows roughly $4.5 billion in June redemptions, so the money that fled earlier this summer is starting to come back. The heavier pressure is coming from the desks that actually move the money. With over $30 trillion between them, BlackRock, Fidelity, Schwab, Goldman, and Franklin Templeton all want CLARITY on the books.
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They’re up against a narrow fight over stablecoin yield. The American Bankers Association is pushing what Ron Hammond (Head of Policy and Advocacy at Wintermute and PBN correspondent) described as a “tiny surgical edit” to the yield language, and the lobby is split on it. Investment and custody banks are fine with the deal as written, while retail community banks keep fighting. The act still needs 60 votes to pass. With Rand Paul and Josh Hawley expected to vote no, Thune needs seven to nine Democrats, and that one contested ethics clause is the holdup. Even Jamie Dimon’s JPMorgan warned this week that stalling CLARITY threatens crypto markets. When Dimon is quietly on our side, that’s the signal.
On Polymarket, a September hike is now the favorite at 56%, with a hold at 42%, and a cut at just 2%. A hike would drain liquidity from risk assets and push the dollar up. Crypto tends to feel that fast. A cut would ease that pressure and lift crypto, though at 2% it’s the outcome the market sees as least likely.
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