Gold price has already gone through one of its deepest corrections in years, and analyst Tavi Costa believes the selloff may now be closer to exhaustion than many traders think. Costa compare
Gold price has already gone through one of its deepest corrections in years, and analyst Tavi Costa believes the selloff may now be closer to exhaustion than many traders think.
Costa compared the current decline with the 2008 drawdown and argued that gold has already corrected almost as much as it did during the global financial crisis.
His chart shows the current pullback at roughly 29.2%, compared with about 33.9% in 2008.
That does not mean the bottom is confirmed. But it does make the idea of chasing fresh downside less attractive than it looked earlier in the correction.
Costa’s monthly chart uses a logarithmic scale and places the current gold price near $4,117.
The main comparison is easy to understand.
During the 2008 crisis, gold fell around 33.85% before eventually resuming its larger secular advance.
The current correction is already near 29.23%.
That leaves only a few percentage points between today’s drawdown and the 2008 decline.
Source: X/@TaviCosta
Costa’s view is that if gold is still inside the secular bull market he believes began years ago, these deeper pullbacks may become relatively rare.
He wrote:
“Gold has already corrected nearly as much as it did in 2008.”
And added:
“I see an opportunity.”
The chart also labels the current environment as “tightening into a debt wall,” which is part of Costa’s broader macro thesis that high rates, debt pressure and fiscal stress could eventually become supportive for gold again.
I think Costa’s comparison is useful, but I would not treat 2008 as an exact template.
A 29% decline does not automatically mean another 4% down is the maximum.
Different inflation, yield, dollar and liquidity conditions can produce very different outcomes.
Still, the chart makes one good point: a lot of damage has already happened.
Gold has fallen from above $5,000 toward roughly $4,100, so anyone turning aggressively bearish here is no longer betting on the first leg of the correction. They are betting that an already deep drawdown becomes substantially deeper.
That is possible, but the risk-reward is changing.
Read also: Gold Price Prediction: Analyst Maps a Drop Toward $3,333 in 2027
Personally, I am still waiting to see whether gold can dip below $4,000.
If price moves into roughly $3,950-$4,000 and starts showing stabilization, that is where I would become much more interested in gradual accumulation.
I would not buy simply because $4,000 is a round number.
I would want to see sellers lose momentum, price hold lower levels and preferably a recovery back above the broken support area.
The reason I like that zone is simple.
From the recent high near the mid-$5,000s, a move below $4,000 would push the correction much closer to, or beyond, the 2008 percentage decline Costa is using as his historical comparison.
At that point, the market would likely be much closer to capitulation than optimism.
For me, that is usually a more interesting place to start looking.
Costa’s thesis therefore does not mean gold has definitely bottomed around $4,100.
It means the easy bearish trade may already be gone.
If gold’s long-term bull market remains intact, the next meaningful opportunity may come from buying fear during the final stages of the correction rather than waiting for a perfect confirmation after price has already recovered.
For more financial news and price predictions, click here.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for daily crypto updates, market insights, and expert analysis.
The post Time to Buy Gold? Gold Price Crash May Be Near Its Limit appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.
