According to Jurrien Timmer, global macroeconomics director at Fidelity, the bitcoin bull cycle could restart for four years. His arguments are based on BTC’s resistance above $60,000 and the
According to Jurrien Timmer, global macroeconomics director at Fidelity, the bitcoin bull cycle could restart for four years. His arguments are based on BTC’s resistance above $60,000 and the improvement of its performance against gold.
Bitcoin rose nearly 6% last Friday and regained the $80,000 level. This increase accompanied the drop of oil below $100, which temporarily eased fears of a new inflation spike.
Your 1st cryptos with BitgetThis link uses an affiliate program.According to Jurrien Timmer, this scenario occurs after about a year of consolidation above the $60,000 zone. This duration could correspond to a typical bitcoin “winter”.
His analysis mainly relies on the following elements :
Timmer in his publication devoted to markets states:
It is the usual length of a Bitcoin winter, about a year. So I feel that a new four-year bull cycle has begun.
The term “four-year cycle” refers to the historical pattern associated with bitcoin halvings. These events halve the reward given to mining companies. They have usually preceded a bullish phase, then a peak and a correction. However, such statistical regularity does not guarantee that the next cycle will follow a similar schedule.
Bitcoin also crossed above its 50-week moving average. That is why observers use this indicator to distinguish a simple rebound from a more durable trend change. A weekly close above this line would consolidate the scenario proposed by Timmer.
This threshold had already been identified by Galaxy Research as a crucial level. In 11 of the 13 previous crossings observed at the end of closed bear markets, the cycle bottom had already been registered. Nevertheless, a first attempt failed at the beginning of September.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, estimates: “bitcoin looks strong above the 50-week moving average. The move seems real”. He considers the current move more solid.
The $82,000 zone now represents the next expected confirmation. It equals the peak reached in May. A sustained breakout would open the way to $90,000, while a new rejection could leave BTC in its consolidation phase.
Timmer also places his analysis in an environment marked by a sustainably higher cost of capital. Thus, bond yields weigh more on highly indebted countries and increase their financing costs.
According to him, governments respond with a form of financial repression. This policy mainly consists of keeping real rates under pressure or mobilizing monetary creation to lighten the debt burden.
This environment would support demand for rare assets. Bitcoin has a capped supply of 21 million units, whereas gold retains its historical status as a store of value. Consequently, the correlation between the two assets has just become positive again.
However, this relationship is not permanent. Bitcoin traded in April more with stocks than with safe havens during periods of tension. A rise in real rates or renewed risk aversion would therefore weigh on its price.
Options markets remain more cautious than Timmer. Thus, traders could assign nearly a 35% chance to BTC returning above $90,000 by December. The possibility of exceeding $100,000 could drop to 18%.
A return to $71,000 would remain likely in case of failure below $82,000. This level corresponds both to the 200-day moving average and the realized price of short-term holders. A break of this zone could weaken the thesis of an automatic restart.
The end of the “bitcoin winter” therefore remains a market interpretation, not an established fact. A sustained close above $82,000, followed by higher institutional volumes and flows, could bring a stronger confirmation.
