TLDR: US Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.0 in October, beating the 55.5 forecast and reaching a 53-month high. Factory hiring grew at its fastest pace since March 2012, even as the output index
The US Manufacturing PMI climbed to 56.0 in October 2026, its highest reading since May 2022, as factory hiring reached a 14-year high. S&P Global’s preliminary survey, released October 23, showed manufacturers expanding despite rising costs and supply constraints.
The reading exceeded economists’ 55.5 forecast and edged above September’s 55.9, extending the sector’s recovery from its 2023 contraction. Meanwhile, stronger employment and orders helped sustain broader activity, even as services lost momentum. The services PMI declined from 58.8 to 57.9.
BREAKING: The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI index rose +0.1 point in October, to 56.0, its highest level since May 2022.
This exceeded expectations of a -0.4 point decline.
The improvement was particularly driven by job growth, which rose to its strongest level since March… pic.twitter.com/wwlCvHXPJy
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 24, 2026
The composite PMI fell from 58.4 to 57.6, remaining at its second-highest level since March 2022. The US Manufacturing PMI also accompanied a survey-based estimate suggesting annualized fourth-quarter economic growth could reach 5.0%, supported by stronger new orders and employment. That projection reflects business conditions, rather than an official GDP figure.
The US Manufacturing PMI marked a 53-month high, reversing much of the weakness visible when the index fell near 46.2. The employment component delivered the clearest improvement, with hiring growing at its fastest recorded pace since March 2012.
Manufacturers added workers to meet demand and manage growing backlogs. However, production growth slowed slightly, with the output index easing from 56.2 in September to 55.8 in October.
That distinction matters as the US Manufacturing PMI measures overall business conditions, not production alone. Employment gains strengthened the headline reading while factories continued reporting output expansion at a slower rate.
Supplier deliveries also took longer amid raw-material shortages, shipping disruptions and capacity constraints. These delays added to the difficulties manufacturers faced as they worked to clear outstanding orders. Consequently, improving demand coincided with operational pressures rather than an uninterrupted recovery.
Composite new orders rose to 58.2 from 58.1, their strongest level since March 2022. Export sales registered their fastest growth since May 2022, while goods export orders increased for the first time since June 2025.
The US Manufacturing PMI thus contributed to a survey indicating fourth-quarter GDP growth near 5%, compared with a PMI-implied 4% third-quarter pace. Separate economists’ estimates placed third-quarter growth around 3%, underscoring the difference between survey signals and forecasts.
However, inflation remained a significant concern as the composite selling prices index climbed from 58.4 to 59.8, its highest level since August 2022. Meanwhile, input costs remained elevated at 64.9, reflecting persistent pricing pressures across the economy.
Although the US Manufacturing PMI indicated stronger factory activity, rising energy, transportation, and material costs continued to weigh on businesses. Furthermore, the survey linked these pressures to supply disruptions and higher oil prices, complicating efforts to bring inflation toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
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