Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, says Bitcoin’s streaks of consecutive double-digit gains are over. In an interview published November 3 by Cointelegraph, he credits Wall Street trade
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, says Bitcoin’s streaks of consecutive double-digit gains are over. In an interview published November 3 by Cointelegraph, he credits Wall Street traders who sell call options after rallies, along with profit-taking whales.
Thielen still expects Bitcoin to reach $90,000 by year-end. That needs a gain of about 16% from the roughly $77,000 where BTC trades today.
Thielen says each crypto cycle brought different promoters, and they attracted different buyers. This time the promoters come from Wall Street, where investors trade on economic data and Federal Reserve decisions.
He expects Bitcoin to jump on macro news, then drift sideways until the next major event. Selling calls after a rally caps upside for the seller. Dealers on the other side hedge by selling BTC into strength, which flattens price spikes.
Thielen estimates market makers account for up to half of the $60 billion in net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. His estimate draws on Form 13F filings. These firms hold ETF shares to hedge options books, so the positions are not outright bets on higher prices.
He adds that early inflows included retail buyers who paid steep premiums through institutional vehicles. He still expects genuine institutional and sovereign wealth fund demand to arrive later.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in the US in January 2024 and pulled in billions within months. Bitcoin crossed $100,000 in December 2024 and topped $120,000 in October 2025. That peak was the last time prices behaved like earlier cycles.
Then the trend reversed. November 2025 brought record ETF outflows of more than $3 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT lost $523 million on November 18, its largest daily withdrawal since launch.
Bitcoin now trades more than 35% below that peak. It fell to about $76,100 last Friday after a $6.3 billion hack of Binance. October ended with a 7.3% loss.
Flows remain weak. US spot ETFs lost $515 million in October and about $399 million on Monday alone. IBIT’s $405 million outflow was its largest since June. For 2026, the funds are down about $38 million net.
ETF buyers have an average cost basis near $81,300, so many hold losses. CryptoQuant data shows buyers from one to three months ago have a cost basis of $77,700, slightly above the current price. Short-term holders sit at $75,832.
Analysts warn that underwater holders often sell when price returns to breakeven. That would turn $77,700 into resistance. CryptoQuant lists $68,400 as the next support zone.
Thielen ties his $90,000 target to monetary policy. The Fed raised rates by a quarter point in September to 3.75%–4%. Last Wednesday it held rates in a split vote, with two officials favoring another hike.
He expects one more hike by December, then a cautious stance that lets Bitcoin rally into year-end. The risk is plain. If inflation stays high and the Fed tightens further, risk assets, including Bitcoin, could stay under pressure.
Thielen has been bearish on Ether for more than a year. He argues too much of Ethereum’s activity value goes to layer-2 networks instead of ETH holders. He calls the network a valuable utility that nobody wants to pay for.
Ethereum burns base fees, and supply shrinks only when burns exceed issuance. Cheaper layer-2 transactions mean fewer burns. ETH trades near $2,270.
He points to Hyperliquid, where trading fees fund HYPE buybacks and burns, as a model. For Ethereum, he wants a tighter link between network use and holder returns.
The bullish case is simple. Thielen compares this recovery to early 2023, when doubt ran high as Bitcoin climbed from $20,000 to $30,000. Many investors missed that move and want back in.
The bearish case is stronger in current data. ETF flows are negative, recent buyers are underwater, the Fed may tighten again, and a record exchange hack has hit confidence. Slower rallies also mean slower drops, which may suit institutions that dislike violent swings.
A $90,000 close would need a clear shift in flows and policy within eight weeks. Thielen’s view on market structure is well supported. His timeline carries more risk.
