TLDR: Wintermute reports crypto leverage has largely been flushed out following a week of heavy long liquidations. The Fed’s dot plot flipped to an implied hike, pushing December rate hike od
Crypto market leverage has largely been cleared following a turbulent week marked by a hawkish Federal Reserve pivot and the collapse of the Iran-Israel ceasefire deal.
Wintermute’s June 22 market update outlined how Bitcoin absorbed back-to-back macro shocks, holding the low $60,000 range despite mounting pressure.
However, the trading firm cautioned that weakening demand from ETFs and Strategy leaves the market better positioned defensively than it is for a sustained recovery.
The week’s macro backdrop shifted sharply after the Federal Reserve’s June meeting. The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75%, but the tone turned decisively hawkish. The policy statement was cut from 341 words to 130, stripping out the easing bias entirely.
The dot plot flipped from an implied cut to an implied hike, with the 2026 median rising to 3.8% from 3.4% in March. December rate hike odds repriced to roughly 77% from around 24% a month earlier.
Crypto markets absorbed another blow when the Iran nuclear deal collapsed over the weekend. The signing had been set for June 19 in Switzerland following Trump’s June 14 announcement, but Israel struck southern Lebanon, and Iran walked out.
Because U.S. equity markets were closed for Juneteenth on Friday, stocks never repriced the breakdown. Crypto, which trades through weekends, took the hit in real time.
Bitcoin dropped roughly 3.8% on the week, tagging a seven-day high near $67,000 early on before fading to the low $60,000s after the deal fell apart. Ethereum lost 1.2% and slipped back toward the mid-$1,700s, again the weakest major in the complex.
The weekend move triggered approximately $600 million in long liquidations against under $90 million in short liquidations, continuing a pattern seen throughout the month.
Wintermute noted that crypto effectively did the equity market’s repricing for it. Stocks rallied through Thursday on deal optimism, then received a long weekend right as the ceasefire collapsed. As Wintermute put it, this was “a timing accident on top of a hawkish Fed.”
— Wintermute (@wintermute_t) June 23, 2026
The Strategy narrative actually improved over the period, according to Wintermute. Earlier concern centered on a 32 BTC sale that briefly raised forced-seller speculation.
That concern has since faded. Strategy purchased 1,587 BTC for approximately $100 million between June 8–14 at an average price near $63,000, confirming continued accumulation rather than distribution.
That said, the pace has slowed as funding costs rise. Wintermute noted that both ETFs and Strategy are contributing less marginal demand than in prior market phases.
The structural buying pressure that supported previous rallies is now operating at a reduced intensity. Leverage has reset, and positioning has lightened, but new buyers have not arrived to replace that demand.
Qatar is working to keep Iran-U.S. talks alive into late June. A soft May PCE reading on Friday could also provide a short-term catalyst.
Wintermute acknowledged that either development could trigger a bounce but framed it as a tactical move rather than confirmation of a market bottom.
Until flows structurally improve, Wintermute’s base case remains range-bound trading. The conditions for stabilization are present, but the conditions for a new uptrend are not yet in place.
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