70% Probability: Crypto May Bottom Out by June, Analysts Say
GREED
2024
2024
ALPHA
NEXO
With global markets on edge over new U.S. tariff proposals, crypto analysts warn that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins may be approaching a bottom. According to researchers at blockchain intelligence firm Nansen, there is a 70% chance that the crypto market will bottom out before June.
The uncertainty stems from trade policies being discussed by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is expected to announce a series of retaliatory import tariffs aimed at reducing the trade deficit by $1.2 trillion. These geopolitical developments have led to investor hesitation across both traditional and crypto markets.
Investors Step Back Amid High Uncertainty
Ahead of the tariff announcements, traders in the crypto space are holding back rather than taking bold positions. According to Stella Zlatareva, editor at crypto platform Nexo, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has hovered just above the “extreme fear” zone for three consecutive sessions—a potential early sign of market stabilization.
Bitcoin is currently consolidating between $82,000 and $85,000, with many investors waiting for a decisive move above $84,500 to confirm a bullish trend. Zlatareva identifies $82,000 as a crucial support level. If the market sentiment strengthens, she sees upside targets at $86,500 and potentially $90,000.
Nansen Predicts a 2-Month Window for Recovery
According to Aurelie Barthere, Senior Researcher at Nansen, crypto’s path will likely remain uncertain until the U.S. concludes its most sensitive trade negotiations. She estimates a 70% probability that prices for both Bitcoin and Ethereum will bottom out by June.
At present, Bitcoin is down 15% and Ethereum 22% from their 2024 highs, trading at $84,870.96 and $1,872.24 respectively. Barthere believes that a clearer recovery could emerge once the full impact of trade policies becomes known and investor confidence begins to rebuild.
In its latest report, Nansen also notes that both crypto markets and U.S. stock indices are struggling to break above their 200-day moving averages, further highlighting market fragility. As Dey There points out, any encouraging signals from the U.S. economy or trade negotiations could serve as catalysts for recovery across risk assets.
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