After a Historic Q1 Drop, Is Ethereum Poised for a Q2 Comeback?

• The overnight second-worst quarterly performance of ETH history put past positive trends at risk while alarming investors.

• Historical Q2 returns have averaged at 60.26% yet past returns have ranged from triple digits down to double-digit negatives and back up.
• ETH lost its price connection with Bitcoin which reached its lowest correlation level during the previous five years as investors redirected their funds into BTC as well as additional assets.

Ethereum (ETH) has recorded its second-worst first-quarter (Q1) performance in history, marking a significant downturn for the cryptocurrency. The negative third-month performance of Ethereum for Q1 2025 represented its second-largest downturn whereas previous years had not produced sequential losses. 

The asset's declining value creates concern among investors about future market conditions during the upcoming Q2 period. Currently,ETH is trading at $1,856.45 with a price increase of 3.2% as the support hovers at $1,782.98 and the resistance at $1,861.47.

Ethereum’s Q1 Struggles in 2025: Will History Repeat a Q2 Comeback?

Previous year data demonstrates that Ethereum showed significant fluctuations in its quarterly market performance. The positive trend of quarterly gains by ETH in the first quarters of previous years has been greatly disrupted in 2025. Past trends reveal Q1 2024 contributed +59.66% to total returns while Q1 2023 brought +52.15% returns. 

In 2018 Ethereum experienced its biggest Q1 loss before 2025 at -46.61% before that year. According to historical data the median Q1 return equals +5.72% which makes the 2025 loss an outlier.

Historical data indicates Q2 might experience a comeback although Q1 proved to be challenging. Q2 historically generates an average 60.26% return however Q2 of 2019 and 2020 brought triple-digit percentage gains.

Market Implications and Current Sentiment

Since the prolonged market decline Ethereum’s price relationship with Bitcoin reached its lowest point in five years thus demonstrating Ethereum's specific weakness relative to Bitcoin. The current market trend points to changing investor sentiment because funds appear to be shifting towards Bitcoin as well as other crypto assets.

Q2 Outlook: Rebound or Continued Decline?

Looking at historical data, Q2 has generally been a stronger period for Ethereum. However, whether ETH will recover largely depends on macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and market liquidity.The cryptocurrency may recover in Q2 following the pattern from 2020 when it grew +69.62%. Alternatively if negative factors persist the second quarter might match 2022's decline of -67.34% thereby extending ETH's downward trend.

Traders together with investors will carefully observe Ethereum price actions throughout the next months because of Q1's record-breaking losses.

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